WxUSAF
-
Posts
26,488 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by WxUSAF
-
Charlottesville Sunday, Arlington Monday
-
Got a 6er of that today!
-
ITS ON LIKE DONKEY KONG
-
Looks like slushy dusting then rain Welcome back friend!
-
It’s REALLY close. @mappy and @psuhoffman are huggin’. Its been very stubbornly north even when the regular GFS started shifting. Seems like a big jump this run.
-
Whoa, para finally joins the party. Total tuck and stall. Looks like all snow from DC on north. Great run. HH has been very kind.
-
Good HH so far. Double digits for MBY on NAM, RGEM, and GFS. Making this Troegs Nugget Nectar extra nice. Yes, I went to total wine today lol
-
Probably best GFS run for the sub forum yet
-
Why am I excited for the model that gives me 16”?
-
18z RGEM has 9" in 3 hours at the end of the run just across the DE border from @CAPE and @JakkelWx lol I'm hugging hell out of it either way.
-
I usually don't pay much attention to ensembles at this point, but I'd expect (and hope) that the EPS has some big dogs in the mix.
-
FWIW...My generic FB forecast for friends and family is 3-5" Sunday with more after and best guess total accumulation 5-10" for DC-Balt corridor. But with more upside risk than downside.
-
It was literally one post above people asking "where is it" and then there were like four posts saying "it's right there!"
-
@psuhoffman did you see that northern stream energy on the backside of the trough dive in? It was like 12-18hrs too late, but if that could speed up...
-
You said more elegantly what I was trying to get at. It's pretty close to something Ukie-GGEM like. Nitnoid details in precip and banding. After 24hrs of forecast divergence, pretty good consensus today at 12z.
-
People are probably going to whine that Euro is like 6-8" for most vs. 10-14", but it's REALLY close to something bigger. 500mb evolution was much nicer than 0z. It has that jackpot in south-central Jersey, but not any big flags why that couldn't be over us where all the other guidance puts it. Precip's a bit paltry during the WAA and then during the transfer, for reasons I'm not entirely sure of. Shortwave is stronger than previously. I think this juices up.
-
500mb way prettier through 72hrs. Sharper neutral tilted trough vs. 0z which was more positively tilted.
-
The south trend is over, that's for sure.
-
Confluence has definitely bumped about 50-75mi north on this run vs 0z. We'll see what difference it makes.
-
Lots of guidance has this initial band of snow, mostly through MD, around 12z, then maybe a short lull before the main WAA arrives a couple hours later. Euro has it too.
-
Through 42hrs, the shortwave is a bit stronger and the confluence has eased slightly vs 0z. Definitely true at 48hrs...
-
Difference between forecasting for the city and the 'burbs. Pending the euro, I'm probably going to tell my friends+family 5-10" or 6-12", with more upside than downside risk. But they all almost uniformly live in the 'burbs. I think 4-8" for DC is a very reasonable forecast at this point. If this sort of GFS+GGEM+Ukie blend forecast holds through tomorrow's 12z runs, then you can bump that up.
-
CWG, with input from @usedtobe, going with 4-8” total for DC as their opening bid. 2-4” from WAA, 2-4” after. Second part less certain obvs.
-
Duh, over my backyard
