WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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If the euro comes out as slowly as the GGEM or para today, I’m flying to Europe to get it direct from the source. Get on with it!!
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Pretty interesting and key note from HM RE: the lack of warm sector convection with this storm that makes things more predictable.
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Just remember your sacrifice will ensure that those of us above the fall line will be in raptured joy on Monday with puking dendrites. And when that happens, we’ll pour one shovelful out for all you little people
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As expected also, the guidance is losing the 72hr long snow event looks. Pretty uniform timing now on the front and back end. Snow starts early to late morning Sunday west to east. WAA tapers off by 0z Monday. Then for 6-12 hours there’s light precip (euro and GGEM) or dry slot (GFS). Then by 12z Monday or so the coastal starts to crank, CCB develops, and hopefully we get powder bombed for another 12-18 hours, wrapping up around 6z Tuesday. Sounds awesome to me.
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Deform band signature right through our region clear as day. Definitely Jan ‘16 vibes.
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EPS is basically locked in. Has been for 36 hours it seems to me. GEFS and GEPS are clearly moving into agreement with it more and more each run. Now just comes down to whether the coastal ends up tucked more NW along the Delmarva coast or farther out east of OCMD. As far as the WAA precip, locations farther south in VA and southern MD probably get better precip out of that then folks farther north. But then of course they probably miss out on the coastal...
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Phew! Good news friends, 6z NAVGEM came back. Snow is back on the menu boys!
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@MillvilleWx totally agree on the WAA providing a widespread low-end warning deal with the coastal being the wildcard. Big dogs always mix, so I’ll accept my sleet if and when it comes Monday in advance of hopefully puking dendrites in the CCB. I liked seeing the euro come into agreement with the other guidance on start time Sunday. Looks like mid-late morning. I’m stoked for a couple @Jebman Jebwalks in daylight with mod snow.
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Sounds like Boston should be worried
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That’s what I’m talking about! Actually, the NoVA jackpots the euro keeps spitting out is definitely giving me Jan ‘16 vibes.
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Oh my. Perfect.
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23z hrrr gives me a flurry band overnight
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Not that you’d expect much differences in a 90hr forecast from one run to another, but the 18z is so close to 12z, that it might just be slight timing differences. Confluence differences in NE are a bit more distinctly different, but the shortwave and low look essentially identical.
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Ha, I have no memory of that. I know we missed the late feb storm to the north, but all I remember is that March was a total blowtorch of warmth.
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Oh snap. Jan '16 is #2, Jan '96 is #3.
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Don't tease me like that, share!
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DT has weighed in on this weekend:
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Euro overdoes near-surface winds. Don't know why.
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As @Deck Pic likes to say, this was a terrible Euro run for people who hate 12-24" snowstorms
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EPS lost the far west outliers. Damn that looks SWEET.
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Definitely. I know Pivotal put purple (sleet) right along 95 in the CCB, but that warm layer must be pretty thin if it exists with 925, 850, and 700mb temps all below freezing at that time. Not to mention climo suggests the cold air collapses back east once the CCB cranks. We can worry about those details Saturday evening or Sunday. Let's keep this 500mb and surface evolution more or less intact for another 48-72 hours please.
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Good catch, yeah, you'd think we'd finally wet-bulb fully after 36hrs of precip
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Yeah, it's a little odd. I don't see why temps would go above freezing like that underneath the CCB. You'll get northeasterly flow and there's plenty of cold air ahead of the storm. I wouldn't worry about it at this point.
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From the 500mb evolution, you can't ask for much more. That late northern shortwave diving in and causing the stall is unusual and I'd normally be skeptical of it, but it's there on almost all the guidance... It just comes down to where the surface low ends up and banding, etc. I think the Euro has shown us that this has the potential for a 18"+ max stripe, question is where it ends up.
