WxUSAF

I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say the Atlantic side might be the best we’ve had since January 16. But the PAC is fair at best. Doesn’t seem hostile per se, but also not very supportive. So there’s certainly a big dog chance, but need to time things out west favorably with a more durable NAO block.

Just took a look at the mean. SLP and 500 look quite nice to me. Is everyone just being rationale about this being 8 days out and so not talking much about it? Seems like we could see an evolution also where we hopefully get something around the 28th and that storm moves up under the block as a 50/50 for a chance around the 30th/31st.

Hi of 42. Lost a good amount of the snow cover today. But drove just a couple miles to Ellicott city near Howard high where the elevation is 150-200ft higher and still almost total snow cover.

Snow rain mix here now

@poolz1 was just coming to say that GEFS definitely has some support for a storm running to our south with a cold high to the north around D9. Not much more to say at this point. ~D12 or so also. Pattern looks active AF from Xmas onward with a stout -NAO and -AO. Rest up now..

Low of 21. Coldest so far this winter.

Top two analogs for the CPC D11 super ensemble are both KUs...3rd is in January 1987. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

Really awesome

mini-NAM'd for Sunday

Vorts flying all over the damn place it seems. With some cold air around I like our chances, but I don’t see anything as a long track scenario.

Can’t avoid the 60F+ Xmas eve. It’s happening.

12/18: 0.1" Total: 3.4". 0.1" behind last winter's total!

That was the arctic front event that was the first real MoCo-HoCo deathband? Forecast was flurries or a dusting and ended up with over 4" of powder. We had family over for my son's birthday party and it was a disaster for them getting home.

IAD officially with 0.1”

Ended up with 1.5” in mid November. Even DC got snow.

November 2018...

Woohoo! Another 0.1”! Got to pad those stats!

Looks a little low for eastern Baltimore county and Harford, but otherwise quite good.

Awesome catch by Ian

Yeah, I agree. Definitely worth an eye. GL lake kinda sucks, but maybe we can get a favorable trend this time?

High of 36. Nice winter day.

Ha, exactly. We definitely don't have the climo of the cities and the airports, but we get fringed by the "N/W suburb" events usually. But being above the fall line, even barely, is noticeable in situations like this. We doubled BWI's snowfall and it's only ~15mi away.

Great thread! A lot to analyze in hindsight. I'm not sure any modeling system can claim victory for this event, but several did have some important pieces to add to the forecast puzzle. GFS was pretty bad overall... GGEM was the first I think to sniff out that the primary low would form along the SE coast and not be in the OH Valley and then jump to the NC/VA coast. Euro did overall a pretty good job being on the western edge of the guidance and consistently showing a lot of mixing, even when the GFS/GGEM were snow bombs for us. NAM did well even from long range with the very expansive area of mixing and rain. I'm not sure the NAM did well on the track in hindsight, but it definitely was value added. And actually the HRRR did surprisingly well from range with the WAA thump. NAM, particularly 3k NAM, missed that entirely even from 6hrs out.

6z GFS is pretty close to an event next Monday