WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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This is probably the last ensemble run worth paying much attention to. Almost NAM time!
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It’s whiplash to read our threads then compare to phillywx. They are all convinced it’s going to end up north while Hoffman is all “congrats RIC, ugh fringed again”.
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I mean, as of 8pm Sunday, it’s quite possible or even likely that you and the south side of 495 crowd have more than anyone in MD. But that probably won’t last...
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Lol as if you won’t end up with more than me. But sure, if you want to see pictures of 25% less snow, I’m your man! Euro and EPS have been very steady. All other guidance is moving toward it. Snow starts in like 60hrs. Time to let it happen and plan your Jebwalk.
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This storm seems pretty locked in to me. Yes, final jackpot location is unknown, but we know where climo usually puts it outside of rare events. Is EZF or DCA going to be the jackpot of a Nina Miller B? Lol
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7-8” all snow just as the CCB is starting to crank? Sign me up!!!
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Late Sunday and early Monday could be a boom time for you.
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Headline for WTOP this morning was “maybe a little accumulation” before it changes to rain
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I don’t know why Bel Air would be the jackpot for phase 1, but a general 3-6” seems like the right call to me. I think potential for more in north-central VA.
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That’s a very good point and why you get the L dancing around to the southwest after being offshore. Euro and GGEM did that today. Basic baroclinicity argues the low will be close to the coastline. Unlike December we have a respectable airmass ahead of this so the low shouldn’t ride up the Bay. Coastal front should be on the coast... P.S. you saw this window coming from 10+ days so big kudos on the pattern recognition
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I meant to stop at Total Wine today to stock up for the storm and totally forgot.
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He is a well known wx weenie
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Mike Trout on the @Wentzadelphia bus
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Verbatim that’s a lot of 33-34F rain for me with an isothermal profile from the surface to 800-850mb. If that’s a smidge colder with a euro or GGEM like temp profile...
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Here you go for that ICON analysis
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My thought is everyone should step away from their phones and computers, do a quick check of the 18z euro/eps around 830pm, and otherwise get ready for the snowstorm.
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I extrapolated the 84hr NAM another 60hrs and it gives me 20" and you 25". So we good.
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lol of course this NAM run already shows 8-12" in VA from the WAA so...
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There's going to be a few ridic NAM runs I expect...
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We’ll see what EPS says, but this seems pretty locked in. These run to run differences are fairly minor. Details to nitpick for the next 48hrs are thermal profiles and total precip amounts. But we have the broad strokes. 3-6” WAA snow Sunday. Probably 3-6” in the CCB for points north of DC, maybe north of EZF. Wild card is the transition time from around 0z-12z Monday. Is that mixy or light snow or mostly nothing?
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Just snows and snows and snows...moves southwest and then southeast during Tuesday!
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?? Looks much more tucked than 0z as of 96hrs with a colder profile to boot
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Coastal transfer going faster by 84hrs vs 0z. All snow for EZF north.
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Euro is amped south west weaker norther. Uh oh?
