WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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It was literally one post above people asking "where is it" and then there were like four posts saying "it's right there!"
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@psuhoffman did you see that northern stream energy on the backside of the trough dive in? It was like 12-18hrs too late, but if that could speed up...
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You said more elegantly what I was trying to get at. It's pretty close to something Ukie-GGEM like. Nitnoid details in precip and banding. After 24hrs of forecast divergence, pretty good consensus today at 12z.
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People are probably going to whine that Euro is like 6-8" for most vs. 10-14", but it's REALLY close to something bigger. 500mb evolution was much nicer than 0z. It has that jackpot in south-central Jersey, but not any big flags why that couldn't be over us where all the other guidance puts it. Precip's a bit paltry during the WAA and then during the transfer, for reasons I'm not entirely sure of. Shortwave is stronger than previously. I think this juices up.
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500mb way prettier through 72hrs. Sharper neutral tilted trough vs. 0z which was more positively tilted.
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The south trend is over, that's for sure.
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Confluence has definitely bumped about 50-75mi north on this run vs 0z. We'll see what difference it makes.
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Lots of guidance has this initial band of snow, mostly through MD, around 12z, then maybe a short lull before the main WAA arrives a couple hours later. Euro has it too.
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Through 42hrs, the shortwave is a bit stronger and the confluence has eased slightly vs 0z. Definitely true at 48hrs...
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Difference between forecasting for the city and the 'burbs. Pending the euro, I'm probably going to tell my friends+family 5-10" or 6-12", with more upside than downside risk. But they all almost uniformly live in the 'burbs. I think 4-8" for DC is a very reasonable forecast at this point. If this sort of GFS+GGEM+Ukie blend forecast holds through tomorrow's 12z runs, then you can bump that up.
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CWG, with input from @usedtobe, going with 4-8” total for DC as their opening bid. 2-4” from WAA, 2-4” after. Second part less certain obvs.
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Duh, over my backyard
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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
WxUSAF replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
The wave along the front type deal behind the cutter next week has been showing up occasionally. -
That's not a fight, it's a homicide. As long as the Euro doesn't move farther south, I think we're looking good. If it holds or inches back northwestward with the coastal, then I think we get rolling.
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Not sure if it was mentioned but 6z EPS increased spread vs previous runs.
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Hmm ok. Those seem like good numbers to me through like Sunday late evening.
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Total through Tuesday??
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If you think the disagreement for our sub forum is bad, look at the Poconos area lol. 20-25” difference between the euro and other guidance like the para. RGEM looks lovely, I’m hugging.
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Caps Twitter is reading the storm thread
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Analysis paralysis Its time to just get on with it. At least we can start looking at soundings soon.
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I totally agree, but I think we’ve had one op run (and the ukie at that) with something like that in the last 72hrs?
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lol look at the 18z para and suppression will seem like a distant memory. Essentially no precip after Sunday.
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So the ensemble mean snow map jackpot moved south like 30miles and we’re calling that a huge shift? That’s noise.
