WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Whoa, para finally joins the party. Total tuck and stall. Looks like all snow from DC on north. Great run. HH has been very kind.
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Good HH so far. Double digits for MBY on NAM, RGEM, and GFS. Making this Troegs Nugget Nectar extra nice. Yes, I went to total wine today lol
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Probably best GFS run for the sub forum yet
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Why am I excited for the model that gives me 16”?
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18z RGEM has 9" in 3 hours at the end of the run just across the DE border from @CAPE and @JakkelWx lol I'm hugging hell out of it either way.
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I usually don't pay much attention to ensembles at this point, but I'd expect (and hope) that the EPS has some big dogs in the mix.
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FWIW...My generic FB forecast for friends and family is 3-5" Sunday with more after and best guess total accumulation 5-10" for DC-Balt corridor. But with more upside risk than downside.
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It was literally one post above people asking "where is it" and then there were like four posts saying "it's right there!"
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@psuhoffman did you see that northern stream energy on the backside of the trough dive in? It was like 12-18hrs too late, but if that could speed up...
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You said more elegantly what I was trying to get at. It's pretty close to something Ukie-GGEM like. Nitnoid details in precip and banding. After 24hrs of forecast divergence, pretty good consensus today at 12z.
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People are probably going to whine that Euro is like 6-8" for most vs. 10-14", but it's REALLY close to something bigger. 500mb evolution was much nicer than 0z. It has that jackpot in south-central Jersey, but not any big flags why that couldn't be over us where all the other guidance puts it. Precip's a bit paltry during the WAA and then during the transfer, for reasons I'm not entirely sure of. Shortwave is stronger than previously. I think this juices up.
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500mb way prettier through 72hrs. Sharper neutral tilted trough vs. 0z which was more positively tilted.
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The south trend is over, that's for sure.
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Confluence has definitely bumped about 50-75mi north on this run vs 0z. We'll see what difference it makes.
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Lots of guidance has this initial band of snow, mostly through MD, around 12z, then maybe a short lull before the main WAA arrives a couple hours later. Euro has it too.
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Through 42hrs, the shortwave is a bit stronger and the confluence has eased slightly vs 0z. Definitely true at 48hrs...
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Difference between forecasting for the city and the 'burbs. Pending the euro, I'm probably going to tell my friends+family 5-10" or 6-12", with more upside than downside risk. But they all almost uniformly live in the 'burbs. I think 4-8" for DC is a very reasonable forecast at this point. If this sort of GFS+GGEM+Ukie blend forecast holds through tomorrow's 12z runs, then you can bump that up.
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CWG, with input from @usedtobe, going with 4-8” total for DC as their opening bid. 2-4” from WAA, 2-4” after. Second part less certain obvs.
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Duh, over my backyard
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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
WxUSAF replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
The wave along the front type deal behind the cutter next week has been showing up occasionally. -
That's not a fight, it's a homicide. As long as the Euro doesn't move farther south, I think we're looking good. If it holds or inches back northwestward with the coastal, then I think we get rolling.
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Not sure if it was mentioned but 6z EPS increased spread vs previous runs.
