WxUSAF

Use the NAMs the way they’re supposed to be used. And nailing the precise physics of coastal transfer, cyclogenesis, and cold conveyor belt development is not it.

37/10 with high clouds to the southwest

This tweet from @griteater shows what I was saying in the other thread well. We get perfect fetch off the ocean around 18-23z Monday, but then it moves north and our snow gets lighter

Time for someone to make an obs+now cast thread!

I don’t think you can find some massive difference in a dynamical reason between the absurd Canadian solution and the still quite nice euro. It’s not like the Canadian has a 10mb deeper low or something. Just comes down to where the moisture gets transported. Does south central PA get it straight off the ocean with us getting the leftovers? Or do we get the purest of the pure certified 100% fresh Gulf Stream moist flow? And I think that is just a little detail of how the 700, 850, and 925mb lows are oriented.

Lol euro gives you a pretty nice parting shot on the way out early Tuesday @CAPE

P.S. nice agreement as well in the WAA precip tomorrow. A couple euro and 3k NAM runs were a bit dry, but now showing 0.4-0.6” of liquid. Nice uniform 3-5”/4-6” type deal that’s going to be falling onto a cold surface. That alone will be really nice.

Euro is 10”+ for DC and points north. Pretty uniform evolution among the guidance back to a close tuck near OCMD and stall or slow movement for 24hrs or so from Monday through early Tuesday. Given that, I think the Ukie and Euro are still fairly dry...not that I think the RGEM is right, but that position for that much time would argue for a moister flow off the ocean. May come down to small differences in the LLJ orientation. We want it with a bit more fetch off the ocean vs fetch off New Jersey and Philly lol. Either way, fun long duration storm. I’m ready.

And I. AM. HERE. FOR. IT.

lol holy shit I just saw the snow map Naked poutine and maple syrup time

BRB, having some alone time with the RGEM. Then drenching some poutine in maple syrup and getting silly.

Very interesting the EPS has emphatically liked NoVA and the classic snowy N/W spots in MD for days but the Ops haven’t ever really put a bullseye there. Ops more into south central PA back toward NYC lately. Don’t know what that means, but it’s been a pattern.

Go to bed @Ji!

Low of 20F at BWI and only 24F at DCA lol. BWI hasn’t been in the teens yet this winter and DCAs record long 22+ streak continues.

Can I get GFS precip with euro thermals? TIA! Yes, precip and thermal profiles go hand in hand often...

Wunderground app gives me 13”

So every HH model run except the crappy icon gives me double digits? LFG!

Yeah I think of true Miller Bs being northern stream short waves. This is a Miller B hybrid IMO.

Feeling like 6” minimum. Hopefully double digits

Hi of 31 IMBY

Jeez, damn n00bs derailing the storm thread smh

Charlottesville Sunday, Arlington Monday