WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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The south trend is over, that's for sure.
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Confluence has definitely bumped about 50-75mi north on this run vs 0z. We'll see what difference it makes.
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Lots of guidance has this initial band of snow, mostly through MD, around 12z, then maybe a short lull before the main WAA arrives a couple hours later. Euro has it too.
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Through 42hrs, the shortwave is a bit stronger and the confluence has eased slightly vs 0z. Definitely true at 48hrs...
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Difference between forecasting for the city and the 'burbs. Pending the euro, I'm probably going to tell my friends+family 5-10" or 6-12", with more upside than downside risk. But they all almost uniformly live in the 'burbs. I think 4-8" for DC is a very reasonable forecast at this point. If this sort of GFS+GGEM+Ukie blend forecast holds through tomorrow's 12z runs, then you can bump that up.
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CWG, with input from @usedtobe, going with 4-8” total for DC as their opening bid. 2-4” from WAA, 2-4” after. Second part less certain obvs.
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Duh, over my backyard
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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
WxUSAF replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
The wave along the front type deal behind the cutter next week has been showing up occasionally. -
That's not a fight, it's a homicide. As long as the Euro doesn't move farther south, I think we're looking good. If it holds or inches back northwestward with the coastal, then I think we get rolling.
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Not sure if it was mentioned but 6z EPS increased spread vs previous runs.
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Hmm ok. Those seem like good numbers to me through like Sunday late evening.
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Total through Tuesday??
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If you think the disagreement for our sub forum is bad, look at the Poconos area lol. 20-25” difference between the euro and other guidance like the para. RGEM looks lovely, I’m hugging.
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Caps Twitter is reading the storm thread
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Analysis paralysis Its time to just get on with it. At least we can start looking at soundings soon.
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I totally agree, but I think we’ve had one op run (and the ukie at that) with something like that in the last 72hrs?
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lol look at the 18z para and suppression will seem like a distant memory. Essentially no precip after Sunday.
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So the ensemble mean snow map jackpot moved south like 30miles and we’re calling that a huge shift? That’s noise.
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This is probably the last ensemble run worth paying much attention to. Almost NAM time!
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It’s whiplash to read our threads then compare to phillywx. They are all convinced it’s going to end up north while Hoffman is all “congrats RIC, ugh fringed again”.
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I mean, as of 8pm Sunday, it’s quite possible or even likely that you and the south side of 495 crowd have more than anyone in MD. But that probably won’t last...
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Lol as if you won’t end up with more than me. But sure, if you want to see pictures of 25% less snow, I’m your man! Euro and EPS have been very steady. All other guidance is moving toward it. Snow starts in like 60hrs. Time to let it happen and plan your Jebwalk.
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This storm seems pretty locked in to me. Yes, final jackpot location is unknown, but we know where climo usually puts it outside of rare events. Is EZF or DCA going to be the jackpot of a Nina Miller B? Lol
