WxUSAF

Nothing that I can see out my window yet. 30/17.

Nothing else has more than flurries or scattered snow showers as far as I can tell.

I’m tired of watching models. Ready to watch snow fall.

90% chance of 6”? I’ll take it. Looks like 9 EPS members are RGEM-like insofar as mega totals centered on DC-PHL corridor. Lots of others still with double digits for the same area, but max elsewhere.

Mapz plz

Worried about losing power maybe?

Will didn’t post the last maps, but it looks like euro keeps snow going into late on Tuesday in that strip.

Temps throughout the region certainly have dropped a lot more than expected. I don’t think it really means much, but it can’t hurt.

Hi

That’s like the fourth or fifth euro run in a row that has the stripe of heavier precipitation right over me. And that’s mostly the deform band. I’ll take it.

Nice thump on the 18z euro. Good to see. Let’s do this. Get me 6” on the ground and I’ll be way more zen about Monday.

WBAL uses the RPM and FWIW, it seems to give us a nice deform band late Monday into Tuesday.

32/13 Hopefully the last time I hit freezing for awhile

Having a Uinta Yard Sale winter lager for #2.

That’s what I’m talking about

New Belgium Accumulation for my HH. Also, I can’t get my snowblower to start...

Use the NAMs the way they’re supposed to be used. And nailing the precise physics of coastal transfer, cyclogenesis, and cold conveyor belt development is not it.

37/10 with high clouds to the southwest

This tweet from @griteater shows what I was saying in the other thread well. We get perfect fetch off the ocean around 18-23z Monday, but then it moves north and our snow gets lighter

Time for someone to make an obs+now cast thread!

I don’t think you can find some massive difference in a dynamical reason between the absurd Canadian solution and the still quite nice euro. It’s not like the Canadian has a 10mb deeper low or something. Just comes down to where the moisture gets transported. Does south central PA get it straight off the ocean with us getting the leftovers? Or do we get the purest of the pure certified 100% fresh Gulf Stream moist flow? And I think that is just a little detail of how the 700, 850, and 925mb lows are oriented.

Lol euro gives you a pretty nice parting shot on the way out early Tuesday @CAPE

P.S. nice agreement as well in the WAA precip tomorrow. A couple euro and 3k NAM runs were a bit dry, but now showing 0.4-0.6” of liquid. Nice uniform 3-5”/4-6” type deal that’s going to be falling onto a cold surface. That alone will be really nice.

Euro is 10”+ for DC and points north. Pretty uniform evolution among the guidance back to a close tuck near OCMD and stall or slow movement for 24hrs or so from Monday through early Tuesday. Given that, I think the Ukie and Euro are still fairly dry...not that I think the RGEM is right, but that position for that much time would argue for a moister flow off the ocean. May come down to small differences in the LLJ orientation. We want it with a bit more fetch off the ocean vs fetch off New Jersey and Philly lol. Either way, fun long duration storm. I’m ready.