WxUSAF

Wow, WWA for me too. I'm skeptical I see anything more than a quick dusting. As for schools, tomorrow is giving "all after school activities are cancelled" and then it snows with nothing accumulating on the road for 10 minutes around 530pm.

I believe a few snowflakes are falling

Guidance being so good at identifying storm windows like 15+ days out is a serious blessing and a curse. Just wait for the King to come in and drive this bastard to Buffalo.

This is something I was noticing over the last 24 hours and 12z runs so far really demonstrate it. The slightly northward shifted solutions are also much wetter generally. This goes hand-in-hand with a stronger shortwave and/or less confluence allowing more vigorous moisture transport. So with the tracks that put RIC-Baltimore on the edge of ever flipping p-types also have greater totals. As long as it doesn't get much stronger/norther from these types of solutions, this is probably a trade most of us (north of RIC or Fredericksburg) would be willing to make since both that front end thump is more intense and there's a more coherent CCB snow shield on the back side Monday.

In the red! #blessed

@mappy I like seeing euro back to “where is started”. If we get a normal north shift in the last 72 hours, that puts the metro corridor right in the central swath. And you know the northern end of that where ratios are maximized.

So 0z euro went back to about where it was at 12z? I think a slight north shift close to game time is quite possible, but not one that’s going to make this a congrats NYC/SNE event. More like congrats @psuhoffman @mappy and @mitchnick. Which we all knew was probably coming anyway. And I think some of the banding structure, as @MillvilleWx alluded to, might give the impression of a north shift when in reality it’s just the in-storm dynamics creating a non uniform snow swath. Anyway…nice consensus. Going to be thread time after 12z runs.

That’s sleet for sure. 18z EPS looking solid allegedly?

I’m ready. I think by tomorrow evening we could also do a dedicated thread. Your call

I know we always sweat little 20-50mi wiggles, even down to game time. But I haven't seen anything in at least 48 hours, and maybe more, that I would count as an actual "trend". Euro especially has been near rock solid.

Hard to put any stock in the gfs solution for the 10th given how bouncy it’s been for the 6th, but it’s illustrative for the ingredients of a classic miller A. Here’s the setup at 500mb. Strong southern shortwave (green) and northern shortwave diving in (blue). To turn the coast, we’d want this all shifted west by a couple-few hundred miles. Not a major shift at D10. Then on the next panel, you can see that they don’t quite phase completely. If they did, that would also help pull it north. Still pretty close for d10.

Probably too early to look at this really, but I’m skeptical of ratios much higher than 10:1 in warm sector snowfall.

BWI exactly normal for December and DCA and IAD fractionally above normal. Warm seems to always win out in the end.

Thanks. Feeling most of the way to 100%.

Nice consistency across the guidance with ~120 hours to go. Let’s keep it going. I think by tomorrows 12z runs or definitely 0z Friday, we can feel really good if we have similar looks.

Happy new year everyone!

GFS with the @CAPE beach blizzard for storm 2

It’s solid. Got to smell the rain to get the goods. Or be on Mt @psuhoffman

We are!!

We Are!!

To get technical as I’m a couple drinks in, this is one more example that the EPS is appropriately dispersive whereas GEFS plays follow the leader at this range.

@mitchnick with the NYE weenie rescue

Best severe wx radar of the year? lol

We ain’t done after Monday. Not sure what’s going to happen, but we’re not done.

Large STW south of DC lol