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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Cloudy. 46/24.
  2. WxUSAF
    I’ve paid no attention to the period beyond tomorrow really besides enough to say “looks fun”. Active period, arctic air in play, details TBD. With some not unreasonable luck, I could be near climo snowfall by this time next week. I’m excited.
  3. WxUSAF
    2017. I think that died before it even got with d7 range though. This is already like 3-4 days if you count the Wednesday-Thursday wave.
  4. WxUSAF
    I can’t upload phone pictures it seems, but the edge of the clouds is just to my south and it’s quite picturesque. Feathery and gravity wave patterns embedded.
  5. WxUSAF
    NOW WE'RE TALKING
  6. WxUSAF
    This'll work (3k NAM sounding in heaviest band tomorrow morning) https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=nam3km&runtime=2021020606&fh=30&lat=39.24&lon=-76.90&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular
  7. WxUSAF
    Serious discussion of the SREFs and the long range 84hr NAM this winter. It’s 2004 all over again.
  8. WxUSAF
    When we’re digging out from an epic blizzard, your sacrifice will not be forgotten!
  9. WxUSAF
    Definitely a 94-like setup happening. Would be nice if we could keep the boundary farther south and it’s more snow for us.
  10. WxUSAF
    Liquid with temps in the 20s
  11. WxUSAF
    Exactly. You don’t want the TPV over eastern Ontario or Quebec unless you want very cold and dry. And that is arctic air ahead of whatever storm forms. CAD is going to be supercharged. At this point, it’s just clear that there could be a high impact and long duration winter wx event late next week.
  12. WxUSAF
    Bump
  13. WxUSAF
    I am shocked, SHOCKED to see the bullseye near @mappys house.
  14. WxUSAF
    It’s gonna snow
  15. WxUSAF
    Crushing 700mb frontogenesis band Sunday morning with 2”/hr rates.
  16. WxUSAF
    This is definitely true. Look at temps, snow growth, etc. But despite all our talk, we rarely get snow ratios outside a 8-12:1 range. With the look of the soundings we’ve seen on the NAM and even GFS, I don’t see this storm being different. So unless a storm probably has substantial sleet (not the case Sunday) then the 10:1 snow maps are probably decent.
  17. WxUSAF
    Well @MillvilleWx promised me 10” Sunday and I’m assuming the 10” on the EPS for me is all additional to that. Fun!!
  18. WxUSAF
    Heard something icy hitting the windows around 5am. Then rain. Nothing on the ground except my melting snowpack...
  19. WxUSAF
  20. WxUSAF
    Getting downtown DC below zero is probably like a 6 sigma event now. Double digits below zero?? Like 8 or 9 sigma??
  21. WxUSAF
    @mappys house? I mean the house always wins for a reason when the odds are stacked in their favor and there’s a finger on the scale. A thread the needle with meh airmass? I’m going for the far N/W burbs always. Maybe this is the exception, but I’ll believe that with Sunday’s 0z runs maybe.
  22. WxUSAF
    13-14 plus -NAO there. Got to keep that SE ridge/WAR or else it’s cold and dry. But verbatim that’s fun stuff.
  23. WxUSAF
    I really like @psuhoffmans house as the jackpot
  24. WxUSAF
    I would say still 90% snow cover
  25. WxUSAF
    RGEM actually does get snow into the metro area and MD.
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