WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Kiss of death. Partly cloudy and 40F next Tuesday.
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3-5” deal verbatim. Lots of room there for a bigger outcome IMO. Euro nearly phases the shortwaves but then just kind of shears it out. A little odd. Glad something still showed that storm window after the rest of the 12z suite mostly made a list out of me.
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Yeah, I like that panel a lot. Phasing in the northern stream low. Cold air mass in place.
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Euro came NW relative to 0z. Still not much northern stream interaction. That’s what pulls the low north and expands the precip field for runs like the para-gfs.
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Marquise Brown has to catch the damn ball
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Yeah I said I liked the 12th and then more of the 12z guidance shears it out. Lots of options coming up and feeling pretty good that we get one and probably multiple events.
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Passing along from @mitchnick that the Ukie is a solid hit for Friday. Especially n/w.
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Lol @Ji GFS rule at 360hrs. Arctic air ahead of a storm and still rains on us.
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7” for me and flurries for @mappy. Seems legit
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GGEM ticked south from 0z but still snows on VA. I’m getting fairly interested in the 11/12th period.
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It’s important to remember that all this awesome pattern we’re shoveling through at least the 20th and more likely the 25-30th has absolutely nothing to do with the SSW. Impacts from the SSW are only after then, if we see any at all (which I think we do).
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With JB and Judah on our side, how can we lose?
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Lol I kind of agree with you. It’s pretty amazing the convoluted things it cooks up to give us rain. Luckily it will be wrong.
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If this pattern evolves as advertised and most of us get, let’s say <1” of snow, by January 25, that would be phenomenally bad luck even by our standards.
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Gonna be shoveling by then! Maybe a few times!
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Euro’s pretty close for the 11th. Light snow for far SW VA.
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Ukie and GGEM have been competing for 2nd. More like GFS competes with the JMA for 4th...
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Because it’s basically a cutoff low. No northern stream involvement like the GGEM, so it’s just a bowling ball rolling across. This also means no CCB development so a very anemic precip shield.
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But by the metrics it’s been kicking the GFS’ ass since it was upgraded last year.
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GFS back to a dogsh-t airmass ahead of Jan 8. Losing that Canadian HP it’s showed yesterday.
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I’m pretty much right there with you. I’d love a 2-3 week cold period with several modest snowfalls. Yes a KU would be amazing, but my bar is far lower.
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Believe I saw every month is warmer than the previous 30 years except November, which got slightly cooler.
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Yeah, I get that people are impatient. I am too! I'm still not very bullish on the Jan 8 threat, but I think this period coming up is perhaps the best long wave pattern we've had in years? Still think odds for a KU are higher or much higher than normal. Although that certainly doesn't mean one is a lock.
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Lol look at how much ridging out west. I still think this event has more chance for heartbreak then glory, but I think we’re going to be busy next week and beyond.
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That is not a fondly remembered event here
