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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    I had to do a double take at those surface temps on the NAM. Euro and GFS (!!) are both a few degrees colder. Can't recall seeing a time recently when GFS had colder surface temps in the Balt-Wash corridor than the NAM.
  2. WxUSAF
  3. WxUSAF
    I’ve only taken a quick look this morning, but seems the euro paints max precip amounts just a bit south of where the gfs+GGEM/RGEM do (just south of DC vs near BWI) for wave 1. Wave 2 looks more similar across guidance. Shift the euro north by like 20-30mi for wave 1 and you’d see pretty good consensus.
  4. WxUSAF
    Lol, we can be sure
  5. WxUSAF
    It never died
  6. WxUSAF
    Well, I think it might end up being more distinctly 2 waves with a gap in the middle. Even if the gap is only ~12 hours.
  7. WxUSAF
    Was EPS not very supportive of a Sunday event like the GFS?
  8. WxUSAF
    Oh this has hours of virga and frustrated Marylanders gnashing our teeth while people like @WinterWxLuvr are talking about how beautiful it is and how fast it’s accumulating written all over it. Dry arctic air will take time to saturate. And that’s all accounted for by the QPF panels that models spit out.
  9. WxUSAF
    Probably will this time too just because it’s a west-east moving system and not pulling moisture off the Atlantic.
  10. WxUSAF
    If there’s been a bullseye this year, it’s the Lehigh Valley in Pa! Definitely not southern MD and central VA. It’s a narrow snow band, so it wouldn’t take a huge jump to bullseye us.
  11. WxUSAF
    Did I finally get fired? Or is my office moved down to auxiliary storage B? Can I keep my stapler?
  12. WxUSAF
    Being on the northern edge of the snow max at D3 range is where I want to be 10/10 times.
  13. WxUSAF
    ^exactly. So we may not hit warning criteria, although it could be pretty close in lots of places. A watch is probably reasonable by tomorrow either way unless something major changes.
  14. WxUSAF
    These long duration light precipitation events must make NWS pull its hair out. Reasonable that much of the area could get >5”, but over like 48 hrs?
  15. WxUSAF
    Tell me about it...I saw a noticeable gradient in less than 2mi distance from my house. Drove past the same spot today and they still have snow on the ground from yesterday up near Howard High. Nothing (from yesterday) in my neighborhood. Rates and elevation... Wednesday-Friday event shouldn't matter. Cold air is a wonderful thing.
  16. WxUSAF
    Find someone you love to snuggle with Valentine's Day night. Temps in the single digits and teens by 7pm Sunday night per Euro. Wind chills probably near zero or below. P.S. Monday low near zero.
  17. WxUSAF
    I think I'm in a good position for this one. Of course I thought I was in a good position for yesterday and...well, you could say I was in the center of the action, the 'eye of the storm' if you will!
  18. WxUSAF
    GFS gets a big storm by phasing in a piece of the TPV and thus the main TPV sort of just shreds out in eastern Canada. Euro keeps that more consolidated and thus the coastal is just a weak system until it gets north of us.
  19. WxUSAF
    Over your house??
  20. WxUSAF
    P.S. regarding that Kuchera map posted. This *should* have better dendrite formation and hence fluffier snow that last weeks marathon event. That's what's shown right now. But that Kuchera map would imply like 14-15:1 ratios for the whole storm. I'll take the under. 10-12:1? Yes, quite possible.
  21. WxUSAF
    Other thread!
  22. WxUSAF
    There's not going to be a large N-S precip shield with this. It's a weak-ass 1018mb "low" for the first wave and a powerhouse 1010mb for the second, there's just no massive dynamical forcing to generate a big baroclinic leaf or deformation band. Second, you have very cold/dry arctic air filtering in from the north (which is a very good thing for us), so that's going to eat the precip on the north edge (and yes, models account for that, so no, it's not all virga on the models).
  23. WxUSAF
    Just a reminder to switch back to the other thread for whatever fun the Euro has for us after Friday.
  24. WxUSAF
    Vs 0z, it seems Euro is a bit lighter on the first wave (Wednesday night into early Thursday) and a little juicier on the 2nd wave (late Thursday into early Friday). But still adds up to a really nice event and I am VERY pleased seeing the maximum 50-75mi south of me right now.
  25. WxUSAF
    Ok, keep this thread now for the ~Sunday-Monday Feb 14-15 threat window.
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