WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Possibly going a solid month with barely a flake when the AO is around -2SD, even with a meh PAC, is pretty breathtaking.
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Definitely more consistency across guidance and not in a good way. Not much phasing from the northern stream so they are shredders. Lots of time to change still with the complicated pattern.
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18-20th period looking good
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Exactly. West coast is NOT blocked.
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From what I’ve seen so far, i think the odds of SOME snow Tuesday have gone up. The odds of a big dog (10”+) have gone down. Flow is too fast and too positively tilted to ride up the coast. Still could be a widespread WSW level event though if things work out like the euro or gem showed last night.
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I feel like we tried that before and it ended up just getting muddled and mixed up immediately anyway.
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Yeah, looks like flurries at least. Surprising
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Nice look on EPS. Let's reel in Tuesday and I'll be much more zen about what happens after.
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At this point, my preference is whatever will get MBY out of "epic disaster" for a snowfall year by the end of January. I'd consider that ~>=10-12".
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lolz, DC is left blank
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Could be setting up an epic RIC-PHL snow hole if we don't get next Tuesday between the southern storms and that Miller B.
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Yeah, I see it deamplify as it tries to climb toward that shred zone over New England. But with the 850 and 925mb lows passing to our south, I don't quite get how quickly it just nukes the airmass. All in all, a really good 12z suite pending the EPS. With so many shortwaves, I wouldn't expect anything approaching consistency until at least Friday or Saturday. We're definitely in the game though.
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1030mb banana high over the top, mega confluence to the northeast, a low that tracks well to our south. And rain. Not sure what to say.
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And then it torches the boundary layer. Sigh, I don't know what we have to do to get snow here anymore
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With snow up to CHO
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Yeah, but also helps keep it cold. Trying my best! So many shortwaves...lol. But damn it's pretty.
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Through 114...I'm kind of in love. Famous last words...
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Through 102, euro's 500mb evolution is simpler than 0z. Somewhat like the GFS so far.
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^I was having the exactly same thought yesterday and couldn't decide if it was my memory or not. But these 30+ day gaps with barely a flake falling from the sky are brutal.
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Historically this is the moment the euro comes in with "what storm" and there's not even a shortwave.
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Somehow GGEM gets close with a very goofy 500mb evolution.
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Northern stream does kick it away a bit, but it's also weaker than previously shown so it gives the storm some room to amplify and give us a light event. All good trends today at 12z so far. And maybe offers a couple ways to win: 1. Northern stream phases in 2. Stronger southern s/w does it all alone as long as northern stream goes away enough
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Incoming on the Para also it seems...looks more southern stream driven without a phase, but northern stream is more out of the way
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Yeah, this was a cleaner evolution at 500mb. Less random s/w's to muck things up. A kicker still there though, yeah.
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Yeah, I don't now WTF that hot mess was. 500mb evolution was supportive of a coastal storm. Can't explain that surface solution.
