WxUSAF
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12z GFS is hilarious for the beginning of October.
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Starting the cool season off right with a good chance of a midnight high for Thursday.
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Yeah, pretty decent wind with that cluster. Around 0.5” for the day so far.
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Root for the euro/cmc for next week. GFS has had a cutoff low 4-5 runs in a row which would keep us muggy and warm depending on where it sets up. Euro and CMC keep us in lovely NW flow. Euro has that cutoff at 0z though so obviously a risk.
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But it would be similar to last year if the vortex started weak and then was disrupted early. I think last winter the SSW was right after New Years?
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Pretty shocked to wake up to that score! Was going to say I’ve been impressed with Oweh even before he forced the game winning turnover.
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Pretty fortunate to have a tie game at this point with 2 picks.
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That parade of Canadian high pressures on the GFS starting Thursday
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Widespread 40s next Friday morning per GFS
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Smoked with 0.03”
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Solid trend in our favor recently for next week.
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It’s all I have
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Woo! Look at all those storms dance around me!
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Drove through puddles about 1mi from my house on my way home. Still dry here.
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Oh? Do you have a link?
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I’ve gone down a rabbit hole on Bayesian statistics today for work so I wonder if you could do a test for that plausible hypothesis…
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Itshappening.gif
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^so cool! We all watched the livestream
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Good news at least is that the Sunday-Wednesday torch next week that was being advertised a couple days ago seems to be gone now. Certainly highs in the 80s often in the next 10 days, but looks more like low-mid 80s vs. near 90 as today and the last few days have been.
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yes, last year broke the trend we had going for 3 years
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12z 3k NAM has some action this evening for MD north of DC and NoVA. Not much support on the other CAMs though.
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Perfectly setting up our recent trend of torchy Septembers and Octobers, chilly Novembers, and shorts weather for December.
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Not anytime soon. Won’t be this warm all the time, but looks like a persistent EC ridge for at least the next 10 days. Ridge axis probably shifts a bit westward after that, but not far enough to really cool us down beyond seasonable (or our standard +2-3F).
