WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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For sure this is probably the most forum-wide (likely) warning level event since…2016?? Farthest south LWX counties and areas around RIC would be ones I personally am not sure about warning level snow, but probably warning level wintry conditions with snow+ice.
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I think max snow between 495 and @mitchnickland. DC doesn’t max out because they ping for a bit Monday and because it’s DC. Just my 2C.
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Outside the Ukie (and remember how we survived just fine forecasting without it for years?), I think guidance is all converging to about the solution that makes sense given climo and this setup. Going to be a fun one!
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Fine with me as long as folks know I’ll be offline a fair bit
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No, I’d say new thread on Sunday
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Yeah that’s not happening. Webb still insisting PHL is gonna jack. We’ll see I guess.
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I do too tbh. I’ve been saying 4-8” for our area and I don’t see a reason to change that now. But I think better chance of bumping that to 6-12” than 2-4”.
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I said this morning that I figure a diabatically-driven north trend probably starts once the storm has developed. Given the slower trend across all guidance, that might not be until Sunday now. We’ll see.
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I figure that will happen but euro being stubborn with this farther south solution since 0z last night.
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I mean…it’s fine? But yet another marginal Elias FA move.
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Looks a little juicier for metro corridor and points north?
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I’m feeling optimistic for Monday
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Getting a good burst but not going to last long enough to measure.
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Jealous. I definitely missed out.
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Hartford county got a dusting per family pictures. @mappy did too. HoCo has been high and dry so far outside of flurries. We'll see if these returns produce anything of note.
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Going to get something, but best returns look like they'll skirt southwest of me
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Hoping the squalls near the PA line north of Hagerstown strengthen and make it here. That’s my chance for any accumulation.
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Flurries in Columbia.
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Looks like max stripe is between RIC and DC.
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I think you’re good dude. I think snow max is going to fall between north side of 495 and like Philly. Max precip maybe somewhere like Fredericksburg .
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Yeah I'd expect the overnight shift tonight to issue them for most if not all LWX area and probably PHL too
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GFS is at least a modest hit next weekend.
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ALEET ALEET @stormtracker report to the GFS PBP room ALEET ALEET
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My wag at GFS sounding analysis for immediate 495 area is that 12z Monday is probably snow with heavy rates and a tiny layer at freezing more or less. 18z is probably sleet with lighter rates and a wider warm layer. Reminder that as we get closer, NAM and Euro profiles will be more accurate for assessing p-types. p.s.: we all should be rooting HARD for that ULL/CCB snow area to verify/intensify/biggify. Soundings for that are gorgeous. That is some 12-15:1 champagne powder on the GFS.
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I should start charging for all the free wx advice I give friends and acquaintances with businesses and school system connections
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