WxUSAF
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If anyone has a gif of euro total precip from last 3-4 runs, I’d appreciate it!
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There’s no real high pressure to the north though thanks to that northern stream shortwave. Kinda relying on the confluence and antecedent airmass. So bigger chance for mixing and rain if the coastal doesn’t take over to our south.
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Sloppy first half on offense
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From a Mt Holly met
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0 for 2 on 4th down in the red zone. Probably can get away with it against the browns. Not next week.
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Looks like a sloppy evolution with strong northern and southern stream shortwaves, but sooo much energy flying around. Big upside potential clearly there.
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Gfs gonna do something
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With the disagreement still among the globals even, might have to wait until even 12z tomorrow to get a good sense of warm layers and banding.
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This is exactly it based on TT plots
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Perhaps a little betwixt the 850 and and 700mb lift?
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Hello people? Euro hit next weekend too
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This is the part I want to max out. Major fluff potential.
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That’s sleet
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Like i said yesterday. I’d pay attention to the 3k NAM thermals once its track matches the global model consensus. Probably 18z or 0z.
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3k is the one to care about soon
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The next time the extended hrrr nails synoptic snow forecasts will be the first!
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As cold as the antecedent airmass is, there’s no man high up over New England or Ontario to push back against the WAA. And WAA usually over performs a bit too.
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Amen to this. No looking out to wet pavement and dripping trees. And as @CoastalWx said, our best chance at having snowpack in a loooong while. Just south of 70 works for me
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For sure this is probably the most forum-wide (likely) warning level event since…2016?? Farthest south LWX counties and areas around RIC would be ones I personally am not sure about warning level snow, but probably warning level wintry conditions with snow+ice.
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I think max snow between 495 and @mitchnickland. DC doesn’t max out because they ping for a bit Monday and because it’s DC. Just my 2C.
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Outside the Ukie (and remember how we survived just fine forecasting without it for years?), I think guidance is all converging to about the solution that makes sense given climo and this setup. Going to be a fun one!
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Fine with me as long as folks know I’ll be offline a fair bit
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No, I’d say new thread on Sunday
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Yeah that’s not happening. Webb still insisting PHL is gonna jack. We’ll see I guess.
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I do too tbh. I’ve been saying 4-8” for our area and I don’t see a reason to change that now. But I think better chance of bumping that to 6-12” than 2-4”.
