WxUSAF

GEFS was awful for this past weekend, but there was clearly some (as yet to me unknown) reason why that is. All the ensemble systems struggled, although the EPS least of all. In that case, the operationals were all on the far west end of the ensembles. That was a red flag. In this case, they are much more representative.

GEFS and GEPS means both moved toward a snowier outcome for us based on what I can see. And EPS still looks pretty good. Still plenty of hope for a nice powder event.

^that includes Thursday

I guess it depends what time you're asking. There's a lot going on across the CONUS, which is half the problem lol

What @MillvilleWx just said, but yes, could still have a nice northern stream-only event. Warning level for much of LWX is still possible IMO if the northern stream gets stronger.

This Euro outcome makes more sense given the broader longwave pattern. The mean ridge is on/off the west coast. That's not Position A for a MECS. The earlier MECS outcomes were predicated on perfect phasing/wave spacing. A very tough thread the needle. With so many waves in the flow, it makes more sense that you have a single wave driving the bus to create a storm rather than complicated wave interactions. So, with that in mind, this Euro outcome is quite nice still. I think @WinterWxLuvr mentioned earlier that the outcome now depends on the northern stream shortwave and that looks right to me given the 12z suite. Deeper and we get a Euro like outcome. Flatter/progressive and it's the GFS.

This shows it well. Deeper but a bit more progressive.

I’m only comparing the 6z and 0z maps @Weather Will posted, but 6z looks much deeper but a little more progressive with the shortwave? 6z has a broad 543 dm contour through the shortwave. 0z didn’t at all (only 546 dm) except for a tiny closed dot at the base.

Let’s stop the jumps right there please before we have to start sweating mix.

Dude, you should love it. @mitchnickposted elsewhere maps showing the 700mb RH and it was clearly north of the 12z. Probably would be a better run for the NW crew. eta…ok, maybe I missed sarcasm here…

Hopefully not Harrisburg

I got 3.5" out of that during my son's birthday party. Was expecting a dusting and got ice cold wind-whipped powder.

Kill this storm and all in on Saturday. #Euro #RetakeTheThrone

It was horrific

I think he means "initialization" instead of "innovation"? And that would impact would already be past. It wouldn't impact anything going forward.

It is a bit weird. Euro inside D5? That used to be cash money. Hopefully still is? But can't deny the GFS has been doing very well this month. GGEM and crazy uncle Ukie have been all over the place.

I haven't looked close enough to figure out the connection, but my instinct is that it's not a coincidence that the Euro is a whiff for Thursday and a big hit for Saturday. The other operational are showing more of a wave Thursday and then have little to nothing for Saturday. Maybe the lack of a Thursday wave keeps the baroclinic zone in a more favorable position to interact with the shortwave for Saturday?

1/16-17: 2.8" Season to date: 13.6"

GEFS was terrible for this weekend. Doesn’t mean it will be for next weekend.

Yes, and EPS resolution is still very high relative to other global operational models and especially other ensemble systems.

I still have some slush under the fresh snow, at least in most spots.

Temp almost reached 43F overnight. 33 now. Healthy fresh dusting on all surfaces. I didn’t clean my snowboard last evening so can’t take an official measurement, but think 0.2” of fresh snow after a patio table measurement.

Yes. It’s total accumulation, not snow depth. That’s tracked independently. So DCA, for example, is up to 12.2” for the season I think.