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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Temp already up to 42. This was looking like a mid 30s days just like 48 hours ago. No cold air.
  2. WxUSAF
    I agree. 6z EPS mean is farther north than 0z, but it's a pretty small bump for 5-6 days out.
  3. WxUSAF
  4. WxUSAF
    Yeah, it’s still nearly 6 days away so expectations should be tempered. As @psuhoffman has said, it looks like a fairly narrow north-south extent of snow, so very conceivable someone in the region could get screwed. I think suppression (6z gfs like?) is probably the most likely failure mode.
  5. WxUSAF
    EPS has been very steady. Nice to see that continue at 0z. Getting close to being real. Main southern shortwave is onshore in about 72hrs.
  6. WxUSAF
    Same. A little bit of frozen something collected on mulch, but temp rose overnight so it melted mostly.
  7. WxUSAF
    Not even a single member like the GFS or many of the GEFS members. That pretty stark, even at D6 range. It looks a lot like EPS has already for the last 2 days at least.
  8. WxUSAF
    Just bought tubing tickets for Feb 20. So expect partly cloudy and high of 53.
  9. WxUSAF
    I said a couple days ago that tonight’s 0z runs were a key threshold for me. That puts us about 150hrs out. Still aways to go, but nothing else really got to that point this month and still looked like a legit chance.
  10. WxUSAF
    Key Difference between the month to date and what’s coming next week is the PNA. The positive PNA we’ve had was working to shift things south of us, but in combination with the NAO it was a shredfest. Hopefully with the upcoming -PNA, we get some offsetting factors to keep the storm track nearby.
  11. WxUSAF
    I'm confused. Which wave are you speaking of? GFS just took the lead wave far north? But I agree in general, suppression is a greater threat than cutters next week.
  12. WxUSAF
    How about this one instead?
  13. WxUSAF
    EPS has been pretty steady so far. GEFS and GFS bouncing all over the damn place. Yeah, still 6-7 days away, but I know which of the 2 I'd put more weight on.
  14. WxUSAF
    lol GFS is just so scattershot for all of next week.
  15. WxUSAF
    That was my last semester at PSU as well! Think we ended up with like 20"?
  16. WxUSAF
    He sniffs something, that’s for sure.
  17. WxUSAF
    That’s a tough angle for a phase at the end of the euro. I’d guess it would miss the phase past 240 if I had to guess. Or maybe phase well OTS. Still a pretty nice setup. Busy times ahead hopefully.
  18. WxUSAF
    Wrong thread for the D9-10 threat
  19. WxUSAF
    Pivotal shows dusting for many. Interesting. Fingers crossed.
  20. WxUSAF
    Euro pants tent. Central MD bullseye. Lock that ish UP!
  21. WxUSAF
    D9 event looks decent on GEFS. Good banana high and nice SLP track although it doesn’t seem to turn the corner up the coast, although closer to that than previous runs.
  22. WxUSAF
    GEFS slp track is north of 6z and south of 0z. But pretty wide swings so far. Definitely warmer aloft though. TPV in Canada is a bit farther north and less suppressive. The biggest change is the depth of the follow on shortwave that comes onshore early next week. It’s much deeper on the 12z run and that pumps the ridge more over us.
  23. WxUSAF
    Focus on track and 500 evolution on the ensembles. They will by nature suck for precip type in CAD situations.
  24. WxUSAF
    Wrong thread
  25. WxUSAF
    Fair to say TT and StormVista have very different views of Icon snowfall.
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