WxUSAF

What Sun?

Yeah. That looks about as classic as you can get for a big mid-Atlantic snowstorm.

Definitely Nina climo, especially Nina Miller B hybrid climo, is against us getting the goods. But the blocking puts us in the game. I’m also very much down for a cold powder warning-level event with no stress lol.

0z GGEM basically stalls. Para had a stall a couple days ago for one or two runs. I haven’t looked at individual ensemble members, but I’d wager the big dogs on the ensemble individual snow maps are stalls. A stall is certainly on the table. But it comes down to precise shortwave timing and how it phases.

I agree with @psuhoffman that at this point, the only way most of us don’t see any snow from this is if it’s suppressed way south. As we saw with Monday’s storm, when we have a -PNA, that’s more difficult then with a +PNA. Its nice that we will actually have a respectably cold airmass this weekend leading into the storm. Big storms always have a mix line though, whether it’s sleet or rain or both. Often its as we transition from the WAA precip to the deformation band. Then once the deform band cranks, that mix line collapses back east. Hopefully we are thinking about those details on Saturday.

Ha, yes. New England weenies loving the EPS.

Per @tombo82685, only 3 EPS members were op-like. Definitely a southern outlier.

6z GFS ticked north relative to 0z lol. 6z Para is a strung out mess. Sort of a snowier version of Monday’s event. But damn that EPS clustering right off OCMD is beautiful.

500mb comparison to 12z that @Wentzadelphia posted elsewhere looks to me like the 18z EPS is more likely to capture the surface low and get a stall and stack. Northern stream energy is diving into our main low at 144hrs and the whole trough is deeper with more ridging ahead of it over the Atlantic. Pretty amazing to see this on a D6 mean.

Always a good sign people are having a measured response to a D5 event when there’s discussion about the precise definition of BECS

GFS has MBY at or below freezing from late tomorrow evening until the snow changes to rain late Sunday. Ok then...

I just actually looked at the euro run on my computer now for the first time. My God that's just perfection. And cold leading into the storm!

That D5-6 EPS 500mb evolution is spectacular. Wow.

Well it’s all downhill from here with 5 days to go

Fringed

Man rescued from desert island rejects large pizza. Holding out for all you can eat Alaskan king crab legs and filet mignon.

1/25: 0.7" Total: 4.1"

Did I say 0z tonight? I meant today's 6z run.

You have to live in the box now

Only 1 EPS member doesn't show snow for Sunday/Monday??? Oh yeah, I'm DEFINITELY going to kick the football THIS TIME

Bambi's rampant overpopulation really encourages invasive species by eating all the natives.

DCA reported measurable snow! 0.3”! Our long national nightmare is over!

Probably would put 1-2 in my yard, give some away, and plant the rest in the open space nearby. Hard to get oaks to grow naturally because the deer eat the saplings.

When does the random suppressive northern stream shortwave start showing up for Sunday/Monday? I think 0z tonight.