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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Phew! Good news friends, 6z NAVGEM came back. Snow is back on the menu boys!
  2. WxUSAF
    @MillvilleWx totally agree on the WAA providing a widespread low-end warning deal with the coastal being the wildcard. Big dogs always mix, so I’ll accept my sleet if and when it comes Monday in advance of hopefully puking dendrites in the CCB. I liked seeing the euro come into agreement with the other guidance on start time Sunday. Looks like mid-late morning. I’m stoked for a couple @Jebman Jebwalks in daylight with mod snow.
  3. WxUSAF
    Sounds like Boston should be worried
  4. WxUSAF
    That’s what I’m talking about! Actually, the NoVA jackpots the euro keeps spitting out is definitely giving me Jan ‘16 vibes.
  5. WxUSAF
    Oh my. Perfect.
  6. WxUSAF
    23z hrrr gives me a flurry band overnight
  7. WxUSAF
    Not that you’d expect much differences in a 90hr forecast from one run to another, but the 18z is so close to 12z, that it might just be slight timing differences. Confluence differences in NE are a bit more distinctly different, but the shortwave and low look essentially identical.
  8. WxUSAF
    Ha, I have no memory of that. I know we missed the late feb storm to the north, but all I remember is that March was a total blowtorch of warmth.
  9. WxUSAF
    Oh snap. Jan '16 is #2, Jan '96 is #3.
  10. WxUSAF
    Don't tease me like that, share!
  11. WxUSAF
    DT has weighed in on this weekend:
  12. WxUSAF
    Euro overdoes near-surface winds. Don't know why.
  13. WxUSAF
  14. WxUSAF
    As @Deck Pic likes to say, this was a terrible Euro run for people who hate 12-24" snowstorms
  15. WxUSAF
    EPS lost the far west outliers. Damn that looks SWEET.
  16. WxUSAF
    Definitely. I know Pivotal put purple (sleet) right along 95 in the CCB, but that warm layer must be pretty thin if it exists with 925, 850, and 700mb temps all below freezing at that time. Not to mention climo suggests the cold air collapses back east once the CCB cranks. We can worry about those details Saturday evening or Sunday. Let's keep this 500mb and surface evolution more or less intact for another 48-72 hours please.
  17. WxUSAF
    Good catch, yeah, you'd think we'd finally wet-bulb fully after 36hrs of precip
  18. WxUSAF
    Yeah, it's a little odd. I don't see why temps would go above freezing like that underneath the CCB. You'll get northeasterly flow and there's plenty of cold air ahead of the storm. I wouldn't worry about it at this point.
  19. WxUSAF
    From the 500mb evolution, you can't ask for much more. That late northern shortwave diving in and causing the stall is unusual and I'd normally be skeptical of it, but it's there on almost all the guidance... It just comes down to where the surface low ends up and banding, etc. I think the Euro has shown us that this has the potential for a 18"+ max stripe, question is where it ends up.
  20. WxUSAF
    Climo dude. And it's still 4 days out from starting.
  21. WxUSAF
    If you live west of the Bay, there REALLY should't be any complaining about that run. I'll take my 12" and sleet and say "thank you sir may I have another".
  22. WxUSAF
    Nobody posted on GEFS? Looks like a move south from the overnight runs and the coastal transfer probably has a number of farther south transfers just looking at the GEFS mean on TT with lots of isobar bagginess down toward the NC coast at 114hrs.
  23. WxUSAF
    You can send those snow depth maps to the trash can on your computer.
  24. WxUSAF
    Para quite similar to old GFS in sensible outcome. 6-9" when all said and done. Thump, dry slot, back to snow showers with the ULL.
  25. WxUSAF
    There has definitely been a seasonal trend of primary lows hanging on longer than we want before coastal transfer. Doesn't mean it's going to happen this time though. I'd personally still be quite happy with 5-6", drizzle and dry slot, then 24hours of snowshowers for another 1-2". But I guess YMMV.
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