WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Gfs gonna do something
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With the disagreement still among the globals even, might have to wait until even 12z tomorrow to get a good sense of warm layers and banding.
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This is exactly it based on TT plots
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Perhaps a little betwixt the 850 and and 700mb lift?
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Hello people? Euro hit next weekend too
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This is the part I want to max out. Major fluff potential.
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That’s sleet
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Like i said yesterday. I’d pay attention to the 3k NAM thermals once its track matches the global model consensus. Probably 18z or 0z.
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3k is the one to care about soon
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The next time the extended hrrr nails synoptic snow forecasts will be the first!
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As cold as the antecedent airmass is, there’s no man high up over New England or Ontario to push back against the WAA. And WAA usually over performs a bit too.
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Amen to this. No looking out to wet pavement and dripping trees. And as @CoastalWx said, our best chance at having snowpack in a loooong while. Just south of 70 works for me
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For sure this is probably the most forum-wide (likely) warning level event since…2016?? Farthest south LWX counties and areas around RIC would be ones I personally am not sure about warning level snow, but probably warning level wintry conditions with snow+ice.
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I think max snow between 495 and @mitchnickland. DC doesn’t max out because they ping for a bit Monday and because it’s DC. Just my 2C.
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Outside the Ukie (and remember how we survived just fine forecasting without it for years?), I think guidance is all converging to about the solution that makes sense given climo and this setup. Going to be a fun one!
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Fine with me as long as folks know I’ll be offline a fair bit
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No, I’d say new thread on Sunday
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Yeah that’s not happening. Webb still insisting PHL is gonna jack. We’ll see I guess.
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I do too tbh. I’ve been saying 4-8” for our area and I don’t see a reason to change that now. But I think better chance of bumping that to 6-12” than 2-4”.
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I said this morning that I figure a diabatically-driven north trend probably starts once the storm has developed. Given the slower trend across all guidance, that might not be until Sunday now. We’ll see.
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I figure that will happen but euro being stubborn with this farther south solution since 0z last night.
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I mean…it’s fine? But yet another marginal Elias FA move.
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Looks a little juicier for metro corridor and points north?
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I’m feeling optimistic for Monday
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Getting a good burst but not going to last long enough to measure.
