WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Late Sunday and early Monday could be a boom time for you.
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Headline for WTOP this morning was “maybe a little accumulation” before it changes to rain
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I don’t know why Bel Air would be the jackpot for phase 1, but a general 3-6” seems like the right call to me. I think potential for more in north-central VA.
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That’s a very good point and why you get the L dancing around to the southwest after being offshore. Euro and GGEM did that today. Basic baroclinicity argues the low will be close to the coastline. Unlike December we have a respectable airmass ahead of this so the low shouldn’t ride up the Bay. Coastal front should be on the coast... P.S. you saw this window coming from 10+ days so big kudos on the pattern recognition
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I meant to stop at Total Wine today to stock up for the storm and totally forgot.
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He is a well known wx weenie
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Mike Trout on the @Wentzadelphia bus
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Verbatim that’s a lot of 33-34F rain for me with an isothermal profile from the surface to 800-850mb. If that’s a smidge colder with a euro or GGEM like temp profile...
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Here you go for that ICON analysis
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My thought is everyone should step away from their phones and computers, do a quick check of the 18z euro/eps around 830pm, and otherwise get ready for the snowstorm.
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I extrapolated the 84hr NAM another 60hrs and it gives me 20" and you 25". So we good.
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lol of course this NAM run already shows 8-12" in VA from the WAA so...
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There's going to be a few ridic NAM runs I expect...
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We’ll see what EPS says, but this seems pretty locked in. These run to run differences are fairly minor. Details to nitpick for the next 48hrs are thermal profiles and total precip amounts. But we have the broad strokes. 3-6” WAA snow Sunday. Probably 3-6” in the CCB for points north of DC, maybe north of EZF. Wild card is the transition time from around 0z-12z Monday. Is that mixy or light snow or mostly nothing?
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Just snows and snows and snows...moves southwest and then southeast during Tuesday!
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?? Looks much more tucked than 0z as of 96hrs with a colder profile to boot
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Coastal transfer going faster by 84hrs vs 0z. All snow for EZF north.
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Euro is amped south west weaker norther. Uh oh?
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If the euro comes out as slowly as the GGEM or para today, I’m flying to Europe to get it direct from the source. Get on with it!!
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Pretty interesting and key note from HM RE: the lack of warm sector convection with this storm that makes things more predictable.
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Just remember your sacrifice will ensure that those of us above the fall line will be in raptured joy on Monday with puking dendrites. And when that happens, we’ll pour one shovelful out for all you little people
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As expected also, the guidance is losing the 72hr long snow event looks. Pretty uniform timing now on the front and back end. Snow starts early to late morning Sunday west to east. WAA tapers off by 0z Monday. Then for 6-12 hours there’s light precip (euro and GGEM) or dry slot (GFS). Then by 12z Monday or so the coastal starts to crank, CCB develops, and hopefully we get powder bombed for another 12-18 hours, wrapping up around 6z Tuesday. Sounds awesome to me.
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Deform band signature right through our region clear as day. Definitely Jan ‘16 vibes.
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EPS is basically locked in. Has been for 36 hours it seems to me. GEFS and GEPS are clearly moving into agreement with it more and more each run. Now just comes down to whether the coastal ends up tucked more NW along the Delmarva coast or farther out east of OCMD. As far as the WAA precip, locations farther south in VA and southern MD probably get better precip out of that then folks farther north. But then of course they probably miss out on the coastal...
