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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    SPC mesoanalyis now has the 850 0C line from southern end of 495 to Annapolis and then up the east side of the Bay toward Elkton. Big jump in the last few minutes, not sure what it saw to indicate that. But we're obviously getting colder aloft with people N/W switching to snow. Hopefully I do too soon...
  2. WxUSAF
    -FZRAPL as the heavier radar echoes move overhead. 30F.
  3. WxUSAF
    I think we should wait until the storm is finally done before analyzing guidance performance. Guidance typically struggles more in Ninas than in Ninos. Miller B's are also notoriously more difficult. From the point of view of sensible weather (snowfall) that we all care about, the GFS bros did do quite well if you look back over the last week. They were consistently showing snow maxes to our north. Now whether that was "right for the wrong reason" or not, that's worth a deeper look later this week.
  4. WxUSAF
    We're not going to go down this path again. But this is not an accurate statement.
  5. WxUSAF
    oooo...that's encouraging. Suggests that heavier precip can punch through that warm layer and/or cool it down.
  6. WxUSAF
    FWIW, SPC Mesoanalysis showing the 850mb warm air pocket is not that big. Less expansive and cooler than even the 6z 3k NAM had at this time. Hopefully we can flip back to snow soon as precip redevelops.
  7. WxUSAF
    P.S. 6z GFS looks pretty similar.
  8. WxUSAF
    Looked like 2-4” for our areas and points north. Maybe 6”+ for M/D line and into PA. Not the GFS, but I’ll take it. Most of it falls today, not much overnight into Tuesday.
  9. WxUSAF
    3.9” final measurement of the night. Snow has basically stopped. Maybe a -SNFZDZ situation now. We’ll see what happens tomorrow!
  10. WxUSAF
    Radar has me in the dryslot but I still have sand falling like all day
  11. WxUSAF
  12. WxUSAF
    Yes. Sign of a strengthening storm
  13. WxUSAF
    BWI with 3.4” officially at 7pm
  14. WxUSAF
    Sure are, good catch. Fits with the radar filling in over MD
  15. WxUSAF
    I measured 3.4” at top of the hour. Decent quality flakes right now
  16. WxUSAF
    Don’t tease
  17. WxUSAF
    Better ratios than I thought. 3.4” now for me at the second snowboard cleaning. Biggest event of the winter
  18. WxUSAF
    2.1” at DCA
  19. WxUSAF
    3.2” now. Rocking these 0.25”/hr rates.
  20. WxUSAF
    Saw 2.3” at BWI
  21. WxUSAF
    I see you Herp derp!!
  22. WxUSAF
    GRAF is the IBM model. It was apparently a candidate for the GFS update a couple years ago but lost out to FV3. Yeah, 6-12” was their storm total for MoCo, HoCo, Bmore and points north. Still seems that the low end of that range could verify if we believe the guidance for the next 36-48 hours.
  23. WxUSAF
    FWIW
  24. WxUSAF
    Total wine had a $3 wine stand so of course I partook. Drinking it now and...yeah, it was priced right.
  25. WxUSAF
    Yeah repinning for next weekend
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