WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Looked at 6z 3k NAM soundings. DC definitely stays all snow verbatim. Close at 12-13z, but it seems that may partially be due to lighter precip. Column cools again at 14-15z when things get a little heavier. Soundings tomorrow evening are beautiful for 12-15:1 fluff. Plan your @Jebman Jebwalks accordingly.
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I didn’t think we’d be done after tomorrow and I don’t think we’re done after Saturday. Potential for a major @Bob Chill heater this month.
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This is one of my favorite Twitter/bsky accounts
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This has heartbreak written all over it for some of us in the subforum. But a long way to go, so hope I’m wrong. Good thing most of us will score tomorrow.
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Damn is the euro refreshing to see as a wake up. Assuming no major 12z changes, hard not to just roll with a euro/3k NAM blend. Crazy uncle remains crazy. Euro showing tight gradient on the north side, but mostly in PA/NJ is what we thought would happen and now it’s there on guidance.
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Ok goodnight weenies. Don’t let the euro f this up while I’m sleeping plz.
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Whoa. And 3k has much less wet bias than 12k… if tomorrows 12z run is similar…ooohhh baby.
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3k says the lead band that enters the area from 3-6z is driven by the 700mb fgen. Then it moves north and weakens as the 850mb fgen arrives 12-15z over mostly the same area. Hence you don’t get two areas with local maxima in snow totals but one broad swath.
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Globals seemed to have them in all snow or snow-mix-snow as Storm developed. But close to the line. Nam and hrrr had most mixing. But @csnavywx made a good point about the subsaturated column.
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To those about to be NAM’d, we salute you
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Ah interesting. Nice catch.
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HRRR is generally bad at synoptic snowfall in my experience.
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For KC at least it shows the warm layer aloft is stronger than suggested even 6-12 hours ago.
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Don’t read a ton into it, but KC has had tons of FZRA. Seems like 12z euro had them straddling snow/fzra line now. 3k NAM had sleet. GFS had snow/sleet.
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So much for cleaning up the penalties. They’re going to win, but this is a sloppy game before the playoffs.
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I think the dual band structure is probably going to happen. NBM sorta smoothes that out. 3k NAM does a similar swath through somewhat overlapping zones of the banding at different stages of the storm.
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^if we think there are forecast challenges for our area, Mt Holly and Philly Mets got to be pulling their hair out. @Heisy?? 1-2” on the euro and nbm with warning level.
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I think it’s possible but like all of us I can see failure modes lol. Getting between the 2 bands seems like maybe the most realistic for now. Too far north for the big WAA, too far south for big ratios. Still I think 5”/warning level is a probable floor. I personally am still rooting for a 3k NAM/NBM swath.
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Thanks for the gif. Looks more windshield wiper to me than any real trend. Got 24-30 hours for any true movement.
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If anyone has a gif of euro total precip from last 3-4 runs, I’d appreciate it!
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There’s no real high pressure to the north though thanks to that northern stream shortwave. Kinda relying on the confluence and antecedent airmass. So bigger chance for mixing and rain if the coastal doesn’t take over to our south.
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Sloppy first half on offense
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From a Mt Holly met
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0 for 2 on 4th down in the red zone. Probably can get away with it against the browns. Not next week.
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Looks like a sloppy evolution with strong northern and southern stream shortwaves, but sooo much energy flying around. Big upside potential clearly there.
