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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    GFS gets a big storm by phasing in a piece of the TPV and thus the main TPV sort of just shreds out in eastern Canada. Euro keeps that more consolidated and thus the coastal is just a weak system until it gets north of us.
  2. WxUSAF
    Over your house??
  3. WxUSAF
    P.S. regarding that Kuchera map posted. This *should* have better dendrite formation and hence fluffier snow that last weeks marathon event. That's what's shown right now. But that Kuchera map would imply like 14-15:1 ratios for the whole storm. I'll take the under. 10-12:1? Yes, quite possible.
  4. WxUSAF
    Other thread!
  5. WxUSAF
    There's not going to be a large N-S precip shield with this. It's a weak-ass 1018mb "low" for the first wave and a powerhouse 1010mb for the second, there's just no massive dynamical forcing to generate a big baroclinic leaf or deformation band. Second, you have very cold/dry arctic air filtering in from the north (which is a very good thing for us), so that's going to eat the precip on the north edge (and yes, models account for that, so no, it's not all virga on the models).
  6. WxUSAF
    Just a reminder to switch back to the other thread for whatever fun the Euro has for us after Friday.
  7. WxUSAF
    Vs 0z, it seems Euro is a bit lighter on the first wave (Wednesday night into early Thursday) and a little juicier on the 2nd wave (late Thursday into early Friday). But still adds up to a really nice event and I am VERY pleased seeing the maximum 50-75mi south of me right now.
  8. WxUSAF
    Ok, keep this thread now for the ~Sunday-Monday Feb 14-15 threat window.
  9. WxUSAF
    Go ahead
  10. WxUSAF
    Stole this idea from HM, who posted it elsewhere focused on Philly, but you can see from this GFS cross-section that we should have better snowflake and dendrite formation then the sand we had a week ago from WAA snows.
  11. WxUSAF
    My memory was that BWI didn't get in the teens at all last winter, but I see they reported 1 19F reading per DJF month last winter. Nothing in the teens this winter.
  12. WxUSAF
    FWIW, it seems the seasonal trend is for Euro to be south of the majority of the guidance in the mid-range this winter with our events. Then there's been a bit of a meeting in the middle by gametime. We'll see what happens this time, but I'd personally much rather see a EZF jackpot at this point than a Harrisburg jackpot.
  13. WxUSAF
    21. Still hasn’t been in the teens this winter.
  14. WxUSAF
  15. WxUSAF
    Somehow I feel like my low temp tonight isn’t going to be 16.
  16. WxUSAF
    Evans tripped him!! Wasn’t intentional, but he tripped up the chiefs DB.
  17. WxUSAF
    lol the fix is in. These penalty calls...
  18. WxUSAF
    Definitely looks active. I’m still a bit worried the boundary ends up too close to us for all snow, but we’ll see. With the storms we’ve had so far this winter, there hasn’t been the “inevitable north trend in the last 24-48 hours” we typically assume. Not sure if that’s random chance or models getting better or something else. I’d still like to leave room for a bump north at the end though, especially in this situation. Snow hasn’t been easy this winter, so I’m trying to stay patient...
  19. WxUSAF
  20. WxUSAF
    Eh, I don’t take Canadian.
  21. WxUSAF
    Since I’m reasonable, I’ll take the remaining 9.5” of my promised 10” later this week with a reasonable 25% daily compounded interest rate.
  22. WxUSAF
    Yeah, somewhat. It’s been a stressful climb to about 11” seasonal total lol. Hopefully Wednesday to Friday works out.
  23. WxUSAF
    DCA topped BWI. I figured the 95 corridor was in a good spot for this one. But the dynamically forced band ended up over southern MD and the eastern shore and the colder temps plus mesoscale banding helped the N/W crowd. So 95 got stuck in the dead zone. Not cold enough to accumulate lighter precip and not sufficient dynamics to generate good rates to overcome ~34F temps.
  24. WxUSAF
    Wow, and euro not far off a GFS-like solution for next Sunday too.
  25. WxUSAF
    Hot damn, lock that up right the hell now. 36hrs, all snow north of DC.
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