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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    As long as those ECMWF marketing department checks keep clearing he’ll be ok.
  2. WxUSAF
    925 and 850 stay below zero in DC going by the 6hr panels at least. Maybe it sneaks warmer near 8-9z when the NAM and RGEM had the mix line reach its northernmost point, but I can’t tell. Solid euro run for MD.
  3. WxUSAF
    Noon temps of 39 at BWI and 41 at DCA. Not bad and that’s probably the high with overcast skies now.
  4. WxUSAF
    You and we like the para a lot more.
  5. WxUSAF
    I mean, precip starts in the western area by afternoon. Ok, let’s wait for the euro to fold like a cheap suit.
  6. WxUSAF
    Obs thread now or after euro?
  7. WxUSAF
    Yeah, para notably colder tonight for the region. And wet! I’ll take it. Para looks a lot like @high risks WRF.
  8. WxUSAF
    lol who could have guessed the M/D line would get the most snow!?!
  9. WxUSAF
    Icon is all snow north of DC for the weekend.
  10. WxUSAF
    I’m actually kind of glad for this overnight event lol. Should be snowing when I go to bed and when I wake up it will mostly be over for better or worse. No hours of stressing over radar and crappy snowflakes.
  11. WxUSAF
    I think because there’s a weak precipitation shadow just east of the mountains.
  12. WxUSAF
    RGEM looks like the NAM with (presumably) a 800mb warm layer poking up to around a Laurel-Rockville line early tomorrow morning. Kind of amazing how crappy our air masses have been this winter.
  13. WxUSAF
    Interesting, thanks. But given that’s downwind of us, would need to see if that impacts these short range forecasts over North America.
  14. WxUSAF
    Moreso than other guidance?
  15. WxUSAF
    I mean, I’ll take a euro/NAM blend right now quite happily for MBY. Is the WRF the one you said you liked on Sunday?
  16. WxUSAF
    Euro has definitely NOT been a locked in rock inside 72hrs like it used to be. I’ve seen people on Twitter speculate it’s due to the reduction of aircraft data feeding into it due to covid. But i figure that would impact all the models, so I’m not sure.
  17. WxUSAF
    It makes sense that if the first wave is stronger, it drags the boundary farther south where wave 2 rides along it. And that creates a screw zone where they don’t overlap. On another note, 3k NAM soundings look much improved for central MD vs yesterday when it was looking like a weaker wave 1. After the first hour or two of snow, there’s nice dendrite production for the whole event except right as the mix line pokes a bit north near 8z.
  18. WxUSAF
    Euro total cave to the GFS lol. That said, I like the model consensus for wave 1 for MBY way more than yesterday. Surprised wave 2 has crapped out, but given how fast wave 1 rejuvenated, maybe it’s not dead yet.
  19. WxUSAF
    Huh, some graupel here as well. Over performer!
  20. WxUSAF
    Ha, euro has a bit of that CVA precipitation hole. Caving to the GFS? Euro is lighter than all other guidance with wave 1. Pretty dramatically so. Maybe it’s right, but it’s by itself right now.
  21. WxUSAF
    Can’t post it because I’m on my phone, but 3k NAM soundings look much better in central MD vs 12z, particularly for Thursday morning. Saturated DGZ with good upward motion. If the NAM is right for central MD, would imply wave 1 ends as nice fluff.
  22. WxUSAF
    Has anyone seen a NWS disco mentioning their model preference? Because this clearly ain’t the euro idea
  23. WxUSAF
    Euro is kind of on an island with a dry wave 1. GFS is definitely on an island with a paltry wave 2.
  24. WxUSAF
    Yeah, I didn't buy the 12" stuff. But with a long duration event, a widespread 4-8" seems doable. Probably this works better in a Nino than a Nina. Whether it's the Nina or something else, we've definitely struggled to "close" these snow events we've had. We've lost ground in the last 48-72 hours every time this year.
  25. WxUSAF
    I wouldn't discount the euro, but it's the driest/weakest with these waves relative to the other guidance. And it hasn't exactly nailed our previous storms, whereas a blended forecast from the guidance has done pretty well.
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