WxUSAF

Same. Radar looks good but just virga so far.

You’ll be back just in time for RELOAD

What a mess this will be. No alcohol and near-slave labor?

They hit 31 this morning. Colder than BWI actually.

Got down to 29 earlier but have warmed since 2-3am. 33 now.

My man

^interesting. +PNA/-NAO/+AO like we have next week.

Exactly. Your first scenario could be the magic “storm creates its own cold air” through strong NE flow and heavy precipitation, which helps with crappy climo, but that’s a serious tightrope to walk. So if we go with more of a slider type storm after cold air has arrived (and preferably at night), maybe we can pull the rabbit?

It’s a very nice look. More what the GEFS had before 12z went more positively tilted and progressive. Wish it was winter…

Ensemble mean was definitely weaker and more suppressed. It’s hard to know what we want at this stage since our climo sucks in November, but I think a weaker solution is probably it.

Euro now says “what storm?” For next weekend. This is fun.

Euro still has it. Mostly north of 70.

Kinda? There hasn’t been a drop of consistency yet so not worth parsing Op runs yet except for the popcorn value. Just seems like an increasing chance of that cold HP arriving in advance of precip with a big storm somewhere in the eastern conus.

HM getting NSFW

Yup. What the ensembles are spitting out for next week is pretty dang nice frankly with that +PNA spike and a helpful Atlantic side. EPS made a huge shift from earlier runs at 0z. It’s just…November.

Some places got a legit dusting overnight

My grandmother lived in northwest Niagara county (the tiny light blue sliver on the map above). Worst microclimate for lake effect in western NY. As a kid, I’d get so excited for those huge events because I figured that guaranteed a white Xmas. Then my grandma would tell us she still has bare ground lol. Driving up there we’d pass through the eastern portion of the prime SW fetch Erie band and see enormous snow piles and deep snow and then quickly it would fade to brown frozen mud in Niagara county. The different microclimates are pretty fascinating.

If only it was after mid December or better yet in January…

Was just about to post that. Uncertainty the operative word. HH GFS has nothing except chilly dry weather. Post-Turkey pattern also showing uncertainty with some changes on the ensembles today.

Reminder to folks that we had a nice -NAO last December and we mostly torched. It can’t help us alone, especially outside of peak climo.

^that extended GFS is closer to the bad scenario I described yesterday. Siberian PV merges with the piece over the eastern Arctic ocean and we’re cutoff from fresh cold air. -NAO there keeps us from torching but that’s not a cold pattern. Modified PAC air rarely is sufficient for snow for us before January.

12z GFS and GGEM both have flavors of “cold high arrives” just in time. Except not in time for us and we get cold rain or chilly rain. But it’s worth watching. MJO from Mike Ventrice’s website shows a MJO progression that could lead to favorable west coast/AK ridging early-mid December. Phase 7-8 are cold for us in December.

The real cold air is scoured out ahead of this storm so we’re left with modified air which makes it tough anytime of year and especially in November. But I’ve seen a few op runs that have a fresh airmass nose in from the N/NE just in time, so maybe there’s a chance.

Models+ensembles have a pretty consistent depiction of the last 2 weeks of November. Cold and mostly dry after today through next ~Wednesday, some seasonable moderation for Thanksgiving/Black Friday and a day or two after, then perhaps one last cool/cold shot. After that we moderate, but perhaps not AN because of the -NAO nosing into Greenland and Baffin Island. The -PNA out west cuts us off from really frigid arctic air, but the -NAO could be enough to keep us near normal or slightly below. What happens after depends on 2 things I think. First, that PV over eastern Siberia. If you look on TT or Pivotal, you can see that PV moves east through Siberia throughout the D7-15 period. If it continues east toward Kamchatka, that should push the -WPO ridge back over Alaska into the -EPO domain. The extended GFS from Sunday showed this: With the PV in that location, ridging is forced over the west coast and AK. With the -NAO, that could give a pattern like @CAPE's CFS plots from yesterday. If that stops going east or it merges with another trop PV over the pole, that would cut us off from colder air with the AO going positive and the EPO staying positive as well. The second is maintaining the -NAO. If that sticks around (which it seems to want to do) and we keep the Pacific domain at least neutral to our interests, and that could set us up well by ~Dec 7 or so.