WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Pretty much every storm this winter has been 3-4" with mix for our areas. Feel pretty likely this one will fall in the same category. Maybe we get lucky and it ends up closer to 5" with mix? That's possible.
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I think apparently it did really well with the December event showing the Binghamton jack? But yeah, I'm not sure if I buy it.
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Ukie is really warm at 850mb. Blech.
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Para is a weenie run for the I-95 corridor. Thumped in the morning, just light sleet during the mix period, and then bullseye with snow on the 2nd wave/backend idea.
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It's about the same as 6z. Nice 6hr snow thump for cities before mixing drops 3-5". Then a little snow on the backend Friday. I'd take it. Far N/W folks probably won't like it because it's drier there as they're between bands.
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RGEM kinda sucks. Much drier for DC and points south. Slighty colder at 850 and 700, but not enough to make a huge difference.
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My wife and mother-in-law both got their first this morning!
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Hrrr and the Nam Boyz both have a better thump tomorrow morning than previously advertised at 6z. Hopefully the globals do the same.
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12z 3k is certainly better then 6z was for the metro areas. Better snow thump before sleet. 3k has been sleetier than the 12k since the get-go as it's usually better at seeing thin warm layers in the vertical column.
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Can you please post much less? Thanks!
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Interestingly (?) the NAM has dramatically reduced the 700mb warm layer that was showing up yesterday. Look at the difference between 12z yesterday and today for my area. Warm layer now is 800-850mb, which was also present yesterday. Eventually, the 700mb warm layer does punch in, but several hours slower than shown previously.
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Just keep in mind that the Super Bowl storm showed the I-95 corridor being the precip max right up until the start. Meso bands are not well predicted ahead of time.
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I hate that little blue blob right over my house surrounded by yellow. But can’t say it’s wrong. Every major storm this winter has basically been 3-4” of snow plus mixing. Don’t see a reason to change that for tomorrow.
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Post mortems before the storm is over are weird, but I’ll say this. The NAM held onto the OH valley primary idea way longer then other guidance. That’s a big part of that reason it was showing so much more mixing than the globals in the last 48hrs. That certainly looks like it’s going to be wrong. Now there seems to be decent agreement with the mesos and the globals on track and the slight differences are due to location and strength of the warm layer aloft.
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I can’t decide which is worse: 10:1 snow maps that include sleet or snow depth maps that must be based on measuring on top of your running car’s hood.
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Still seems aggressive at this point but whatevs. I’m fully expecting tomorrow to be Rug Pull: Episode V, Revenge of the NAM.
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Thankfully the RPM jackpots me so I’m hugging
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Dew point has dropped over 20F!
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I like it for our backyards. Sleet line gets so close I'd probably be able to hear it.
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I'll feel comfortable with the 6z Thursday runs. Thankfully, I'll be asleep when they come out so oh well.
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Snow's all going to melt before April
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For sure, especially this year. But we're ~36 hours out and still moving the right direction so far.
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The claw in precip total may be real, but you can really ignore the snow maps here. St. Mary's County isn't getting 14" of snow while Baltimore gets 8-10".
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Almost as cold as the Euro and wetter. Dang son.
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850mb clearly colder on 18z vs 12z. Not a ton, but noticeable shift toward colder/SE solution. 700mb pretty much a wash across the region compared to 12z.
