Correlation coefficient is showing the snow line collapsing south around DC now, but I expect that means that it is snow at the height of the radar beam, but low level temps remain way too warm.
This thing is sliding away from NC/VA even. I’m still hoping my nieces can get a good snow in the Raleigh area, but the trend is not their friend right now.
Losing a little to surface melting plus above freezing temps initially at start means I’m fairly skeptical of these Kuchera maps showing >10:1 ratios essentially. I’d love more than 3” for this storm but I doubt it.
It's close. Sort of similar to the GFS, but with a stronger southern stream low. Move that northern stream a little faster so it can drag the boundary back southward and that's a nice hit.
Eh, doubt it. As much as I'm hugging King GFS and Prince NAM, the GFS has been too wet leading into storms this year a few times. I'd have to get 2.9" to beat Sunday/Monday, which I'm skeptical on. Hope I'm wrong!