WxUSAF
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Feb 12/13 Event Quest for Blues to Envelop More Rather Than Less
WxUSAF replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic
33-34F temps with light daytime snow ain’t gonna do it in mid February. So need it to snow more at night or thump for a few hours. -
Do it, it’s time.
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I hate saying this but it did. Enough spacing at first to get the frontal snow going, but the northern stream diving in fast to probably help juice up the coastal. And the northern stream diving in farther west.
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^look at the EPS 500mb anomaly chart for Sunday the 13th at 12z and tell me how that’s numerically a negative PNA.
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GEFS and EPS playing follow the leader makes things tough to truly assess the goalposts here (and in many situations).
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Need to see more, but one animation I saw elsewhere suggests EPS has no members which look like the GGEM. As @psuhoffman, yesterdays 18z EPS had a shotgun of scenarios including some like that.
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Accounting for a bit of wet-bias in the GEFS, EPS and GEFS look pretty similar in precip swath placement?
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This was a pretty massive jump from the euro so I don’t think we’ve found anything approaching the final solution. EPS will be interesting. The northern stream dropping into the trough could be really good. But we do want some southern stream involved. That affects moisture northward so we perhaps at least get that frontal snow even if we miss the coastal. Hard to lean against the seasonal/Niña trend for areas closer to the coast to be favored for the coastal.
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GFS keeps the north and southern streams more separate. Euro and GGEM mostly say the northern stream is the show with Euro somewhat of a blend between GFS and GGEM at H5 actually. The differences in their trough axes are like 100mi or so. At 102hrs they are all neutrally tilted but GFS is along the West side of MI, euro and GGEM are over Detroit.
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The northern stream comes in too far east so it acts more like a kicker than a phase. Obviously some huge variance in that strength and position between the GGEM, Euro, and GFS.
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Deeper shortwave with higher heights along the east coast relative to 0z at 60hrs.
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I expect they’ll eat into spring break
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They already got snow days to extend winter break too!
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I’ll allow it
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Really need to reel in Sunday. My sons birthday is Monday and he’s dying for a snow day. 1000 dad points for something I have no control over = win!
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Once it caught on 6 hours before start time it’s “true SLR” would have shown 4-6” storm totals.
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Good catch. And the Ukie does some weird shit and has marginal temps so it gives us some white rain. We say the Icon SUCKS (which it does), but goddamn the Ukie Sssssuuuuuccckkkkkssssssssss.
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Not over then?
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Omg it totally misses us. Ha, that’s an enormous jump.
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I’d be skeptical of Kuchera here given the look on the soundings and the experience of the last snow event that we got ahead of the big Miller abcdefu coastal. Soundings do look better on 12z vs 6z though. That northern stream energy diving south on the backside is the big wildcard here. That yanks it west. A positive change for us.
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Wow, RGEM was starting to phase in the northern stream on the west side at the end of the run. Might be worrying about rain with that lol
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Yeah, seems solid. Surface temps are borderline for DC and points south. Of course, icon’s internal SLR of 1.3:1 paints about 1-2” across the area.
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Best panels are of course missing on TT, but Icon (which SUCKS) is on team GFS/Ukie. ha, ninja’d
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SYWM
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Lol that’s impressively dismal
