Jump to content

WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    26,466

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Good short thread here
  2. WxUSAF
    @Bob Chill and I have similar thoughts regarding this threat. I think hoping for a 1-3”/2-4” event as the northern trough swings through might be better odds. GFS has shown that off and on and now GGEM sort of does.
  3. WxUSAF
    IF (MA_weenie_prayers)=.true. THEN PRINT, “Gott ist tot” ENDIF
  4. WxUSAF
    Thanks. Neutral AO is certainly better than ++AO. PNA and AO are the 2 indices best correlated to DCA snowstorms. Having one or the either in a great position is a major help, especially if the other isn’t explicitly hostile.
  5. WxUSAF
    I think @high riskhas said what’s going to happen eventually is the new mesoscale model that will replace the NAM will be run hourly. Going to be fun!
  6. WxUSAF
    This is a huge wag, but I think 8”+ could be possible given how perfect that PNA ridge placement seems to be. But as you know, the lack of Atlantic side help makes the window very very small. I like overrunning events so much more because there’s much more wiggle room.
  7. WxUSAF
    Ding ding ding NAO isn’t as critical. (Virtually) No way DC is getting 18” with a +AO. But that PNA is basically ideal, so a better than normal event is possible on that basis alone.
  8. WxUSAF
    Ugh, hate that gap in the 30”+ amounts over my house. Hope I can get a favorable trend soon.
  9. WxUSAF
    Love you all doing weekend HH GFS pbp for a D7 storm.
  10. WxUSAF
    A mostly zonal pattern across the CONUS with cold air north of the boundary and warm air south. It’s a classic pattern for overrunning events.
  11. WxUSAF
    Yup. A straight up Miller B scenario is destined to fail when the Atlantic side looks like it does in this scenario. Got to have the southern stream involved, but also don’t want a cutoff southern low. This thing is going to be complicated and complicated rarely works for us, especially in a Niña.
  12. WxUSAF
    Low of 12.4. Second coldest morning this winter. If only we had a little snowcover…would have been easy single digits.
  13. WxUSAF
    Congrats all. My sister lives in Cary, NC, and reports “about 3 inches”. She and my nieces are very excited!
  14. WxUSAF
    It’s up to you all, but we have a pinned thread for this storm. You’re welcome and encouraged to use it!
  15. WxUSAF
    I NEED my fix of blue pixels man!
  16. WxUSAF
    Euro has a little too now
  17. WxUSAF
    lol and I thought the GFS solution was goofy
  18. WxUSAF
    Damn...for at least the 140-162hr period, the Euro evolution is way more classic, simple, and pretty than the convoluted hot messes that the GFS and GGEM show.
  19. WxUSAF
    The northern stream wave that the GFS phases into the monster just scoots through the Lakes quickly on the GGEM. But then this beastly closed 500mb low appears out of nowhere and partially phases. Both look like very simple and clean solutions, so obviously a lot of model consistency coming up!
  20. WxUSAF
    Oh man, GGEM does it too. SE weenies climaxing.
  21. WxUSAF
    GGEM and GFS both working slowly in the right direction for Tuesday next week with more spacing between the northern and southern waves. Need that to continue so the northern stream can drag the cold air in enough. GGEM today is very close to that and has a strong enough southern wave to flip us to 1-3" of snow after some rain by dragging in some colder air.
  22. WxUSAF
    Just your standard mid-latitude cyclone with a cold conveyor belt extending down to the Bahamas.
  23. WxUSAF
    At hour 150 I hit the “Prev. Run” and “Next Run” buttons on TT like 6 times because I thought I was looking at the wrong thing. To be generous, 6z looks like it got bad chili. 12z isn’t THAT different from earlier runs at that point.
  24. WxUSAF
    Thanks for the feedback!
  25. WxUSAF
    Updated thread title because I’m still planning for 10” more of January snow
×
×
  • Create New...