WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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I’ve gone down a rabbit hole on Bayesian statistics today for work so I wonder if you could do a test for that plausible hypothesis…
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Itshappening.gif
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^so cool! We all watched the livestream
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Good news at least is that the Sunday-Wednesday torch next week that was being advertised a couple days ago seems to be gone now. Certainly highs in the 80s often in the next 10 days, but looks more like low-mid 80s vs. near 90 as today and the last few days have been.
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yes, last year broke the trend we had going for 3 years
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12z 3k NAM has some action this evening for MD north of DC and NoVA. Not much support on the other CAMs though.
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Perfectly setting up our recent trend of torchy Septembers and Octobers, chilly Novembers, and shorts weather for December.
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Not anytime soon. Won’t be this warm all the time, but looks like a persistent EC ridge for at least the next 10 days. Ridge axis probably shifts a bit westward after that, but not far enough to really cool us down beyond seasonable (or our standard +2-3F).
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Always root for a -AO
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Any pattern change away from an EC ridge looks after D10. GEFS starts shifting the ridge west with some higher heights up top by D11-12, but that’s way out there. Going to be a lot of days with 80F+ highs this month.
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2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread
WxUSAF replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
D7-10 on the 18z GFS is incredibly entertaining. Fujiwara FTW -
Love to get our best winter pattern in November and December when we don’t get major snow regardless. And that pattern isn’t that good anyway.
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Extra 0.05” from a quick downpour. A downpour a day keeps the drought away!
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Ensembles and Ops all seem set with east coast ridging for the foreseeable future. West coast trough or neutral heights with low heights over the pole. So probably not a lot of pleasant fall weather yet. But the pattern would be more conducive to CONUS landfalling tropical systems.
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Marcus peters probably too! What the f*ck is happening!?!
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0.6”
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I’m so done with it 80s, let alone 90s. Was in New England over the weekend and had a couple mornings drop below 50. More of that please.
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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion
WxUSAF replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
NAM and Hrrr look way more bullish than they did this morning on the 6z runs. 3k NAM with the HoCo bullseye -
2021 Mid-Atlantic Garden, Lawn, and Other Green Stuff Thread
WxUSAF replied to mattie g's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yes unfortunately. Add another horrible invasive species to the pile. -
UK heatwave = 3 days above 75F
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Canaan Valley WV got down to 31!
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Some PWSs near @psuhoffmans house in the 46-48F range. I assume @psuhoffman actually has light frost this morning.
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Just saw a tweet saying the Mullica Hill, NJ tornado will be AT LEAST EF3.
