WxUSAF
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I’m not saying I just skimmed through like 200 pages of obs and disco from that storm but I’m not NOT saying it either.
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Maybe in mid January peak climo you could say that, but Nov 25-28? Nah .
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Setup for post-Thanksgiving definitely is nice in broad terms with wavebreaking driving the big -NAO and a quasi 50-50 low. Then a strong southern stream s/w. But it’s November…and because of that, we might have a better chance of flakes next Tuesday/Wednesday with cold NW flow.
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Maybe. Probably. But they’ve been more common this century by far than in the last 20 years of the 20th century. And could have a Nino in 22-23…
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Lots of feels reading that thread…
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Doug Kammerer winter forecast: https://www.nbcwashington.com/weather/how-much-snow-to-expect-dougs-2021-22-winter-forecast/2883423/ In total it’s pretty in line with most other winter outlooks with AN temps and BN snow. But details are quite different. He’s going for a very warm snowless December and a colder snowier Jan and Feb.
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Low of 31 with frost
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Just lately?
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Lol DCA
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An interesting end to the contest awaits. If DCA gets to freezing tomorrow morning, @RIC Airport will win. @yoda will win if DCA waits to Saturday, while @mappy will win if it's next Wednesday. I tested those dates based on today's 12z GFS, but a lot of variance here with a big swing in results. Actually, our group MEAN forecast will actually win for the later 2 dates (Saturday and next Wednesday and probably most dates in between).
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Hot damn. Flipped the EPO from the last one I saw. I’d still not mind if that look is can-kicked for a week or so 10 days. Later in December for that type of look never would hurt.
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You thinking blizzard warnings might be needed??
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In November! There’s a signal for a strong Miller B possibility next week. Euro phases things way far south so we get snow while GFS does it near our latitude and so we get rain and then cold wind. Climo, November, and La Niña all argue hard for a GFS type solution. Going to be cold though.
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Think maybe @MN Transplant?
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Just under 30F at home. 74F here in Key West.
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Nice post which again highlights how we need a NAO ridge to couple with the ENSO favored -WPO for us to have a chance this winter. But if we can get that, we should have some chances for cold and snow. Without it, SE ridge goes on roids.
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Bafflingly zero adjustment. Dolphins were blitzing all the time, everyone knew it, and they still were effective.
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You or the cicadas?
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Thanksgiving morning and Black Friday both in the 20s and maybe scattered flurries??!? Sign me up 12z GFS!!
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For DCA it was apparently the coldest first week of November since 2002. But still no freeze.
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CWG outlook out. Not as pessimistic as I think it could be. I’d take it for sure.
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Nice summary @psuhoffmanand your point about the NAO dovetails nicely with what I just said in the other thread. -WPO is typical for -PDO and that’s bad news for us unless we get NAO help. We want the PAC ridge axis farther east to be ideal for us.
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As @CAPEs map above shows well, a -WPO only really works for us if we also have a -NAO. It can get western Canada nice and cold, but it teleconnects to a -PNA and ridging over us usually. Hence storm track to our west. We want that ridge over AK and the Yukon to be in a good spot for us.
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If it was 3 weeks later I’d be intrigued and cautiously optimistic about the pattern starting Saturday-Sunday and going through at least next week. But mid-November?? Meh. Congrats Deep Creek.
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