WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Not over then?
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Omg it totally misses us. Ha, that’s an enormous jump.
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I’d be skeptical of Kuchera here given the look on the soundings and the experience of the last snow event that we got ahead of the big Miller abcdefu coastal. Soundings do look better on 12z vs 6z though. That northern stream energy diving south on the backside is the big wildcard here. That yanks it west. A positive change for us.
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Wow, RGEM was starting to phase in the northern stream on the west side at the end of the run. Might be worrying about rain with that lol
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Yeah, seems solid. Surface temps are borderline for DC and points south. Of course, icon’s internal SLR of 1.3:1 paints about 1-2” across the area.
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Best panels are of course missing on TT, but Icon (which SUCKS) is on team GFS/Ukie. ha, ninja’d
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SYWM
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Lol that’s impressively dismal
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Yup. Get the @Bob Chill 8-2 front orientation instead of 7-1 and if that southern wave can lag a little bit, it could be a snowy hit. Ensemble individuals have been highlighting that period for a few days.
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Gorgeous. Too bad it’s 110 hours away and probably all downhill from here
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After seeing the euro, I can see how getting that northern stream snow (a lot like the “PRE” snow event we had) requires the southern stream to at least get neutral tilted so it can advect some moisture northward. Northern stream actually looked better on the Euro vs GFS/GGEM, but its southern stream remains positively tilted and so there’s no moisture to wring out as snow.
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I tend to agree. GGEM also had 1-2” this way.
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The northern stream not digging as much gives us a consolation prize.
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Through 108 I do not think this is the GFS run we wanted. Leaving more every back in TX (seems familiar) and northern stream isn’t digging as much.
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41/32 with sprinkles and a few sleet pellets. What time does my surprise snow storm start??
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Nino is looking possible if not likely. No idea about Modoki.
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Ukie is great at global H5 anomalies and consistently shitty at east coast sensible weather prediction
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You get Ukie post-144 hr?
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H5 improved for Sunday on GFS, but not much better at the surface.
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We needed this to happen overnight tonight and that would have helped a little. I’d imagine elevation and ruralness will play a role in whatever slush meteors may fall.
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Oh, well in THAT case. ALL IN
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Am I missing something? Are we rooting for some light rain showers?
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Low of 16.7. @WeatherShak i think it does well IMBY if it’s cloudy or when the sun’s not up. Probably mounting location plays a role.
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^thats what my wife got for me for Xmas! Also at Costco. Seems to do pretty well I think. Thermometer runs warm on sunny days.
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Surface temps are like upper 30s?
