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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    For sure. Got down to 26F at my house last Wednesday and was in the 20s for many hours, so that might have done it. Certainly noticeable on some leaves/plants. Of course, the damn chickweed will grow at just about any temperature above 20F.
  2. WxUSAF
    Noticeable short term modeling bust last night. All guidance I saw showed it getting 5-10F colder.
  3. WxUSAF
    It’s not even snowing tonight and these random temp flatlines and rises (36 now, hrrr and NAM had it below freezing) still stress me out and piss me off in winter.
  4. WxUSAF
    So you’re saying we're due!?!?!!!???
  5. WxUSAF
    Saw a 12z euro snow map and it had the 0.1” line to DC. One more run like that and I might put the snowboard out tomorrow
  6. WxUSAF
    Euro throws us a turkey drumstick in the form of some blue pixels early Sunday.
  7. WxUSAF
    It’s a pretty large run-to-run change. Finds this strong southern stream wave and does a sloppy phase of everything to our northeast (of course).
  8. WxUSAF
    Euro says welcome to La Niña suckers
  9. WxUSAF
    Another? When did I miss the first one?
  10. WxUSAF
    Same. Would much rather have a favorable longwave pattern later into December when climo temps are colder.
  11. WxUSAF
    Overnight EPS and GEFS both are cankicking/muting the early December torch somewhat. Both show another trough digging in around Dec 4-5, which is when there probably will be a big storm somewhere in the eastern CONUS. Given the look, I’m skeptical that it’s a snowy pattern for us, although the trailing wave idea can work in otherwise crappy patterns.
  12. WxUSAF
    Maybe the first of these radiative cooling clear nights when I’ve been colder than BWI. BWI has had some respectable minimums over the last 3 weeks relative to the surrounding area. But today only 30 at BWI currently (low of 28) and 27 IMBY.
  13. WxUSAF
    @MillvilleWx at the party
  14. WxUSAF
    Congrats to @wxdude64 on winning the 2021 First Freeze contest! @wxdude64 pulled out a very close contest with an exact forecast for DCA that hit 32F on an intrahour ob through a period of 34F hourly obs this morning. @mappy and @yoda tied for 2nd, only 1 day behind. For I think the first time in the history of the contest, our cumulative mean forecast was actually the best of all and beat @wxdude64 by 4 days!
  15. WxUSAF
    High of 43 and low of 30 so far today. May be able to get below 30 before midnight. 40 currently.
  16. WxUSAF
    Good. All stores should be closed thanksgiving.
  17. WxUSAF
    North is always the huge risk with these clippers. But there’s a lot of vorts flying around so I’d just take each run as entertainment until Thursday-Friday at least.
  18. WxUSAF
    Definitely want it south right now. Almost always adjust north within 24-48 hours. GFS has the energy as well, just weaker.
  19. WxUSAF
    He did not.
  20. WxUSAF
    This GIF shows the differences between the 3 globals for this shortwave. GFS doesn't even key on that shortwave at all. GGEM phases it with another northern stream shortwave, which pulls it north. Euro keeps it separate and has very suppressive flow offshore in the Atlantic, which keeps it tracking south of us. From previous clipper experience+climo, the GFS or GGEM solutions are FAR more likely than the Euro solution. These northern stream shortwaves usually pass to our north, especially in November!
  21. WxUSAF
    Oh, good catch. @wxdude64 would win and @mappy and @yodawould tie for 2nd. Our mean forecast would actually win by 4 days though!
  22. WxUSAF
    DT woofing about this now as the Australian MJO forecast shows the wave getting to phase 8 with moderate-strong amplitude by Dec 10 and then going into the COD from there. If that happens, that should provide a long wave pattern supportive of cold/snow for us in mid-December.
  23. WxUSAF
    All 3 globals have something like that in the Sunday-Tuesday time frame next week.
  24. WxUSAF
    Prayers for you
  25. WxUSAF
    0.0” of rain from the major storm impacting the holiday travel of millions!!
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