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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Basically all the meso models (notably except the NAMs) have a period of snow (as determined by model p-type) mid-late morning tomorrow for northern or central or northeast MD. Surface temps are mid-30s at best though, so any accumulation would be on grass and rate dependant. eta…12z GFS as well.
  2. WxUSAF
    The models know about the M/D line
  3. WxUSAF
    High of 66, low of 42, and 0.15” of rain. Merry Christmas!
  4. WxUSAF
    Go JWST!!!
  5. WxUSAF
    Warm/dry, cool/wet, cold/dry
  6. WxUSAF
    ^thats the look that we were first teased with for next week. Hopefully we get it to actually happen. Euro with a nice setup and a RIC hit verbatim on Jan 3. That’s definitely a window of interest for now.
  7. WxUSAF
    One positive over the last 24hrs for the GEFS and GEPS, at least , is that they have been restrengthening the -AO and -NAO at the end of the runs. Previously that was starting to break down (although always hard to tell how much is just reflective of ensemble spread).
  8. WxUSAF
    I’m going Monday! Glad you’re on the mend!
  9. WxUSAF
    Second. High of 39F again.
  10. WxUSAF
    I think late last January through much of February was solid winter for us. Insane gradient obviously in snow outcome, but it was a hair breadth (or about 3-5F) away from being a very memorable stretch.
  11. WxUSAF
    Troegs Troegenator for me tonight
  12. WxUSAF
    All3 major globals are roughly similar in the D10 time period (basically Jan 1) in suggesting a cutter/lakes storm finally pushes or starts to push the SE ridge down and usher in a cold airmass to at least the center of the country. GFS is most aggressive and fastest. GGEM and Euro are pretty similar and would suggest like Jan 3 or so when we get a good cold push.
  13. WxUSAF
    By recent standards, quite encouraging 12z Op runs so far with at least possibilities starting after New Years.
  14. WxUSAF
    Car was all iced up this morning. Temp just below freezing. Might count this as freezing rain if this ends up being the only winter precipitation we get this year…
  15. WxUSAF
    36F and light rain. Living my best winter life.
  16. WxUSAF
    2 is pretty good usually. 3 is good for us in March.
  17. WxUSAF
    Between now and 2022, any frozen precipitation will be front end stuff ahead of a warm front. The models have shown this as a possibility. What we’d hope for in January are overrunning events along a quasi-stationary boundary to our south. Look at the very end of todays 18z GFS and you can sort of see how this works. SE ridge gets suppressed, mean boundary is to our south, and waves run along it with us on the cold side. That can be pretty lucrative.
  18. WxUSAF
    Woo! First sub 40F day. High of 39F.
  19. WxUSAF
    23 so far. Coldest this season.
  20. WxUSAF
    Huntley has looked very impressive in his playing opportunities. Wouldn’t be shocked if he gets some interest in the off-season.
  21. WxUSAF
    I think Brown was wide open
  22. WxUSAF
    Lol Jan 1994 analog
  23. WxUSAF
  24. WxUSAF
    You’d assume the D3 forecast will be pretty close to reality. A D10 ensemble forecast shouldn’t really be used for sensible weather at a single point. It’s showing the longwave setup, which will give you a general idea on temp perturbation from normal and storminess. It’s showing that the eastern CONUS is probably warm while the west is cool/stormy. And that will probably be a decent look from D10.
  25. WxUSAF
    For demonstration purposes, todays 12z GFS has this two wave scenario from hour 324-360. Some front end stuff is also on the table and GFS shows that type of scenario as well after Xmas.
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