WxUSAF

I’m going with the Kuchera 12:1 daytime March snow ratios

Odds for my yard: Trace or more: 75% 0.1” or more: 40% 1” or more: 15% 2” or more: lolz

For comparison, forecast Saturday 12-18z temp drop at Baltimore: Euro: 41—>33 GFS: 50—>32 GGEM: 45—>31 3k NAM: 43—>32

It doesn’t mean there won’t be cold air outbreaks again, just that they are rarer and less potent then they would have been 20-50-100 years ago. Take any daily temp anomaly threshold you want: +/-5F, 10F, 20F whatever. Look back over the last many years and compare how often you get that level warm anomaly vs cold anomaly. Warm always wins. You can look at this winter as an example. I’d have to double check, but I don’t think there were any -20F or greater daily departures at BWI in DJF. But there was like ~8 days with +20F. And yes yes, UHI exists, but UHI doesn’t take a “normal” day in rural/suburbs to +10 or +20 at the airport.

That’s explicitly December-February

Here’s your 2-4F warming

0.53” here. Lowest temp was 37.9.

Just because there’s no cold pattern on the horizon after Sunday doesn’t mean it won’t hit freezing again! Last freeze even in the cities is usually at least late March?

If you define the seasons more on weather patterns than the calendar, it seems to me that spring starts after this weekends cold shot. Cold air retreats well north next week and no sign of it returning.

38.8 with light rain

Snowcover enhanced to be sure, but the airmass looks cold. And transitory. Seems like 10s are a good bet for areas outside the metro corridor even without snowcover. Inside metro corridor, probably need snowcover to get that cold Sunday.

Oh boy, all we need is a 20F drop in 6 hours of daylight in mid March. Lock this up!

3k NAM sounding for MBY is only above freezing right at the surface. I’d it can thump like that at 7-9am, it should accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces.

And euro now has upper 10s for most of the burbs on Sunday morning.

Based on H5 heights it looks robust, but 2m temps seem low-mid 20s. Do you think that’s under done?

Make a thread!

21st century December climo

Yeah, hopefully that one slightly below freezing morning low will knock them back.

Spring predictability barrier, etc, but the latest enso plumes are

I highly recommend the Seek app by iNaturalist. Free and quite accurate.

In Harford county having crabs with family and I saw a mosquito, I shit you not.

Bamboo and multi flora rose are both highly invasive.

Oh yeah. Daytime, rate-dependent, March snowfall with temps 34-36. Lock that up!

Was far better then the last 2 winters though when we couldn’t even get into the 10s. But still nothing really remarkable.