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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Ensembles last night can kicked by 24-48hrs. They precise timing has been bouncing around so it’s not exactly a notable change. And as I’ve said several times, I don’t mind a modest can kick while our climo gets better day by day.
  2. WxUSAF
  3. WxUSAF
    December to remember or another Niña dud?
  4. WxUSAF
    Of course on principle I don’t like above normal temp days, but this was pretty nice wx to put up our Xmas lights.
  5. WxUSAF
  6. WxUSAF
    Yes it is, which normally is a bad sign for our snow chances. But with high latitude blocking like that, the whole conus is basically BN temp wise.
  7. WxUSAF
    This is kinda nuts for a D13 ensemble mean for the -NAO. That Dec 6-11 period is an above-average early season snow threat window.
  8. WxUSAF
    BWI: 14.6” DCA: 9.3” IAD: 16.1” RIC: 7.7” SBY: 6.5”
  9. WxUSAF
    It should be win and advance for USMNT against Iran. Got to beat somebody and this is the team they should win against. Let’s gooo!!
  10. WxUSAF
    Right, it assumes Wales loses to England.
  11. WxUSAF
    US should beat Iran though, right?? Obviously a draw or win today is much preferred, but as long as they don’t get crushed against England and then beat Iran, they should advance on goal differential?
  12. WxUSAF
    Look at the precipitation charts. It’s not a cold/dry pattern.
  13. WxUSAF
    Bad news for the Debs, haters, and losers today. 12z GEFS back to winter D12+.
  14. WxUSAF
    I wouldn’t mind a can kick as long as we do get a supportive snow pattern eventually (which I do think will happen with that high latitude look plus MJO progression). Climo is so much better by Dec 15.
  15. WxUSAF
    12z GEFS presenting your overrunning/flat wave scenario for the post 12/6 period.
  16. WxUSAF
    Weenies over the holiday weekend be like
  17. WxUSAF
    Clear skies, very dry air, and weak downsloping.
  18. WxUSAF
    Hopefully we can score something small when the RELOAD starts to RELAX before we get our annual Xmas torch
  19. WxUSAF
    ^enjoy! Too bad Notre Dame is still closed, but hopefully you can see lots of sights and have some amazing food.
  20. WxUSAF
    Whoa, apologies for not announcing this before. With DCA reaching freezing on 11/18, that actually gave @yoda and @MN Transplant a tie with 17 days total departure. @GramaxRefugee comes in 3rd with 18 days. But @MN Transplanthit the tiebreaker of 81F exactly right and thus is the winner! Congrats!
  21. WxUSAF
    Last year we started getting teased in late Nov/early Dec and the can got kicked into early January. I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if the can gets kicked 4-7 days here or maybe more. This really good pattern has only been teased for ~2 days so far also, so not exactly a lock yet.
  22. WxUSAF
    @leesburg 04?
  23. WxUSAF
    The NAO signal has been there off and on for awhile. But the -EPO has really grown on the D10+ progs over the last 48 hours.
  24. WxUSAF
    @ORH_wxman posted 12z EPS in the NE sub. Looks like 6z GEFS. Pants tent
  25. WxUSAF
    Yup. And that ridge bridge with a trop PV underneath could supply some legit cold air. Pretty much. Had some snow in 2017 and 2020 too, but 2013 was last real winter month December.
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