WxUSAF

Let me offer my congratulations to your kids on an extra week long winter break!

I’ve heard that said explicitly as one of the problems.

So, why is central and NE MD getting the finger on the Euro but not on the GFS? It all comes down to the strength of the shortwave and hence how the surface low shifts to the coast and redevelops. This is comparing the 6z GFS and 0z Euro of TT to make the maps easiest to compare. 6z Euro is a bit stronger than 0z, but the same general pattern holds. Look at how much deeper the GFS is with the shortwave as it moves into the Midwest (lower heights depicted with a deeper blue color). 522 dm height on the Euro is up in northern MI, whereas its over Chicago on the GFS. Then look at how that feeds down to the surface depiction. GFS has a more consolidated low pressure down South, while the Euro has this baggy mess that's half onshore and half offshore. This isn't the ideal frame to compare (would rather 12 hours later), but you get the idea. That baggy mess creates a ragged precip field, with one area (the part down south and west of the Apps) falling apart as the coastal is getting going to our northeast. And we get caught in the middle. This is a very normal thing for Miller B storms!! And Ninas!! So, certainly is possible. We want a consolidated stronger storm, but not *too* strong so it would cut more west.

Low of 15

The Today show interviewed a guy who has been on northbound 95 near Stafford since 730pm yesterday.

OMG

DCA laughs at this statement

With this set up, going to be much more of a classic tendency for a N shift in the last 48 hours. Doesn’t mean it will be huge, but that’s the way I’d hedge for now. Factors playing into that will be the strength of our shortwave and its position relative to northern stream waves that are suppressing the flow enough to push it south of our latitude. If you were on @psuhoffmans first zoom chat, recall he was saying that a 500mb track along the VA/NC border was classic for DC. 6z GFS takes the shortwave on a Roanoke—Richmond—OCMD route. The slight northward component to that route indicates it’s negatively tilted at our latitude, which will help bring Atlantic moisture onshore.

Low of 16. It’s ticked just below that, but not enough to round down. Maybe can get a bit more drop before dawn.

HoCo schools closed. When I was a kid, a snowstorm that extended winter break was my dream. Now it’s my nightmare.

DCA updated to 6.9”. Highest of the 3 airports now.

1/3: 6.3”

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSLWX&e=202201031842

Quick review of the new LWX spotter report list suggests all the WSWs verified except southern Harford county in MD.

Now the question is how low can we get the temps tonight. Hrrr, GFS, and euro suggest widespread teens for snow covered places. GFS even single digits for VA and southern MD. NAM is much warmer for some reason.

There was plenty of reason to be cautious with the strong gradient and to be skeptical of the loltastic 10-18” Kuchera amounts. But widespread warning criteria snow was not a surprise.

Also 3.9” at IAD

It will all be forgotten next time yet again

Hey, nailed it along the PA line

6.3” will be the final number. Some pics

6.3” now. Been rocking 1”+/hr rates for 4 hours now. 28F. Very satisfied. Let’s do it all again Friday

Biggest flakes yet as the back edge approaches.

5.2" now in Columbia. 1.1" last hour, so 3 hours now with 1"+/hr rates. Wind really picking up and snowing heavily. Temp down to 29F. WSW verified!