Yes. I think a 01-02/11-12 level disaster is certainly possible, but there are also some Ninas that would be tolerable like 10-11 and 17-18 that I’d take in a minute over those worse options. Given the QBO and low solar conditions, we can hope that we will have periods of favorable NHEM blocking. Dat PAC SST though…
GFS, GEFS, GGEM, GEPS, and Euro all with a big cold push for the east-central CONUS mid-late next week. First freeze looks possible, if not likely quite yet, for most.
Seems next week has a plausible chance for a first freeze for many outside the cities. Still lots TBD. GFS backed off today with the cold air push but euro and GGEM still show it.