WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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GEFS going to be gorgeous. Probably playing follow-the-leader, but it's there.
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Visual. Not surprisingly, GEFS looks a lot like the GFS.
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Anytime a model spits out something unprecedented, you should take it with a heaping dose of salt. However, we do have near record -AO, -EPO, and -NAO…
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The lead shortwave that goes through the Lakes is pretty key obviously. Want that strong, separated, and moving east to get trapped under the Baffin NAO ridge.
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Let's check in with model of consistency and consistent bad news: the GGEM And now for the wildly inconsistent on an island GFS
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Don’t think this is a fish storm and my blinds are wide fucking open
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You seem in the habit lately of trying to always make something bad news. I promise no one will hold it against you if it doesn’t snow.
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Seems like it’s leaking over from the pit of permanent sadness that is Phillywx.
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At 138, gfs has the surface low near Amarillo. Kaiser says Minneapolis.
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Can you resist dropping turds in the punch bowl for 1 run? Please? Just let your inner weenie shine dude.
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PNA ridge standing taller and good separation between that lead shortwave over the Lakes. Definitely don’t hate it so far through 108hr…
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Better close the blinds until the GFS comes out
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The blinds have been opening and closing with lightning speed
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Yeah. We want some lead energy that suppresses the flow over the eastern conus. That helps our shortwave dig farther southwest.
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I finally looked at it. Actually farther west than 12z. This next week is going to be nuts in here White Christmas fever going to make crazy weenies
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Best if we close the blinds until we get a PNA ridge that’s not so far east and also not so far west.
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I feel like that’s still not happened…
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Ya’ll are missing my sarcasm
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Uh oh…fish storm??
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Kicker shortwave appears out of nowhere and shoved it east. Still a pretty gorgeous H5 look as I posted above.
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Something I noticed. Trying to figure out why our shortwave for the 22-23rd is digging so much more in the last 24hrs worth of runs. I think it’s this lead shortwave that moves through the Lakes around D4-5. It sort of merges with and pulls a piece of the 50-50 low west. This provides a lot more suppression of our shortwave and forces it well south. Compare yesterday and todays 18z GFS runs.
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Not sure if it will come together, but if we didn’t have a digital HECS 48hrs before this panel, I’d be stoked. This is a canonical look. #CAPEStorm2022
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We’re basically at D7 for the storm being on our door step. Long way to go but I like where we sit for now. I’d like to see us in a similar position (with wiggle room to maintain a nice event) around 0z Sunday. Everyone should also remember that even an area wide 3-6” type event would be HIGH TIER for mid-Atlantic La Niña December’s.
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We have sooooo much more leeway and margin for error if we get the shortwave to get south of our latitude. Increases the floor AND the ceiling.
