WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Euro looks way different than even its own 0z solution. Let's not kid ourselves into thinking it's rock steady against a favorable outcome.
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We basically want that whole area of low 500mb heights to get pulled like taffy, with one big clump moving toward Ontario and the other pinwheeling around it down the Rockies and into the Plains. 0z Euro did that some, although not to the degree the 12z GFS did. 12z euro seems to be stubbornly staying as one big wad.
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GEFS going to be gorgeous. Probably playing follow-the-leader, but it's there.
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Visual. Not surprisingly, GEFS looks a lot like the GFS.
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Anytime a model spits out something unprecedented, you should take it with a heaping dose of salt. However, we do have near record -AO, -EPO, and -NAO…
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The lead shortwave that goes through the Lakes is pretty key obviously. Want that strong, separated, and moving east to get trapped under the Baffin NAO ridge.
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Let's check in with model of consistency and consistent bad news: the GGEM And now for the wildly inconsistent on an island GFS
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Don’t think this is a fish storm and my blinds are wide fucking open
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You seem in the habit lately of trying to always make something bad news. I promise no one will hold it against you if it doesn’t snow.
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Seems like it’s leaking over from the pit of permanent sadness that is Phillywx.
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At 138, gfs has the surface low near Amarillo. Kaiser says Minneapolis.
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Can you resist dropping turds in the punch bowl for 1 run? Please? Just let your inner weenie shine dude.
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PNA ridge standing taller and good separation between that lead shortwave over the Lakes. Definitely don’t hate it so far through 108hr…
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Better close the blinds until the GFS comes out
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The blinds have been opening and closing with lightning speed
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Yeah. We want some lead energy that suppresses the flow over the eastern conus. That helps our shortwave dig farther southwest.
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I finally looked at it. Actually farther west than 12z. This next week is going to be nuts in here White Christmas fever going to make crazy weenies
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Best if we close the blinds until we get a PNA ridge that’s not so far east and also not so far west.
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I feel like that’s still not happened…
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Ya’ll are missing my sarcasm
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Uh oh…fish storm??
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Kicker shortwave appears out of nowhere and shoved it east. Still a pretty gorgeous H5 look as I posted above.
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Something I noticed. Trying to figure out why our shortwave for the 22-23rd is digging so much more in the last 24hrs worth of runs. I think it’s this lead shortwave that moves through the Lakes around D4-5. It sort of merges with and pulls a piece of the 50-50 low west. This provides a lot more suppression of our shortwave and forces it well south. Compare yesterday and todays 18z GFS runs.
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Not sure if it will come together, but if we didn’t have a digital HECS 48hrs before this panel, I’d be stoked. This is a canonical look. #CAPEStorm2022
