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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    This is exactly what the ravens have done the last 4-6 weeks. Defense been good, but gives up big plays. Offense has been generally shitty.
  2. WxUSAF
    What a terrible decision after a great drive
  3. WxUSAF
    A bit juicier than 0z
  4. WxUSAF
    With this increasingly coherent MJO passage past the dateline, we should start to see some response in the ensemble mean 500mb anomalies. But yikes, they haven’t yet.
  5. WxUSAF
    I mean, sure, it can happen. But I’ll believe it when I’m shoveling.
  6. WxUSAF
    Lol 6z GFS for next Sunday. Anafrontal events with dynamic cooling needed to get snow. We excel at those!!
  7. WxUSAF
    WINTER WILL BE OVER IF WE FAIL
  8. WxUSAF
    18z icon is nice
  9. WxUSAF
    Solid step toward the other guidance but no way is it time to start a thread. Maybe happy hour Tuesday??
  10. WxUSAF
    I hope so. Would like to start seeing some improvement on D15 ensemble means but they still look like a dumpster fire right now. But yes, I’d also prefer to have our best chance in late December to February if we can get it.
  11. WxUSAF
    Stolen from elsewhere… This would be a substantial improvement with a good MJO pass toward and past the dateline and actually subsidence developing over the maritime continent by mid-late month. If this comes to pass, I’d expect our 500mb charts to show some improvement after mid month.
  12. WxUSAF
    And Ukie.
  13. WxUSAF
    TJ Watt was reactivated by the Stillers. I mean, I’m glad he doesn’t have covid, but wouldn’t have minded another 2 days in testing ambiguity… Question now is where’s the O/U on his sack total for tomorrow? 3.5?
  14. WxUSAF
    @MillvilleWx if we can’t get a good, old-fashioned cold shot with the source region that frigid, by mid January at the latest, then it might be time to quit winter in the Mid-Atlantic. I’m not even talking anything that dramatic. Like highs near freezing and lows in the low-mid 10s without snowcover and perfect radiational cooling conditions. Shouldn’t be as hard as it’s been for the last 2-3 years!!
  15. WxUSAF
    Check the 3rd graphic in this tweet: composite 500mb height pattern for December MJO phase 7 in Nina’s. Quite a few similarities to the GEFS plot that @CAPEposted with -EPO, start of NAO ridging and gradient pattern over us.
  16. WxUSAF
    Weren’t we supposed to get down into the 30s this morning? Only 44F at my house. Freaking DCA is colder than that.
  17. WxUSAF
    Gradient pattern. Would not be surprising if the pattern evolves to that as it wouldn’t take major events like an SSW, etc. Gradient patterns can work but would favor points to our north. Good news is that Canada has plenty of cold air to work with.
  18. WxUSAF
    Ukie is real live actual snowstorm. Just like JB promised!!
  19. WxUSAF
    That’s odd since JB is touting his 95-96 analog so much!!
  20. WxUSAF
    Shortwave is trending flatter which is good for us so it limits WAA ahead of it. GFS still hates it, but its moving flatter as well. Still doubt we thread that needle.
  21. WxUSAF
    Mid-Atlantic Niña winter: now only 99% hopeless!
  22. WxUSAF
    It’s almost all southern stream, which is much better for us. But the souther shortwave is also stronger, so more ridging and WAA ahead of it. That could work in Jan/Feb or with a good airmass but we just get fringed with the cold air from the earlier FROPA.
  23. WxUSAF
    It’s close and would be a nice setup with a better airmass or later in the season. But this thing is going to bleed away from us. Just don’t see it happening.
  24. WxUSAF
    This possible event has it all: Great Lakes Low? Check! Perfectly timed mediocre airmass? Check! Early December? Check!
  25. WxUSAF
    Certainly very cold air in Canada with that look ^^^, so any digging shortwave or transient ridge out west should be able to tap into that.
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