WxUSAF

Next Tuesday/Wednesday is clearly the next threat window after Saturday. Been teases/hits on the guidance for a couple days already in that timeframe.

GGEM has sort of an overrunning hit today at that time. Verbatim nice 3-6"/4-8" event.

Pattern is still ripe AF for at least the next 2 weeks. We're not done just because Saturday looks like a fail for most of us.

Eh...still a threat for parts of our subforum. I think it should stay pinned.

Because it's a WWA event? It'll be out between 12-2pm IMO.

I’m a little bummed I’m going to be asleep for @Deck Pic’s 11pm “45/34 excited for my snowstorm” ob.

A decent chunk of that must be rain?

Probably Friday too. It'll ice up overnight!

I hope Fairfax closes tomorrow night out of an abundance of caution. How about...oh, I don't know, just throwing a number out here...say like 6.5 miles south of I-70 do in this setup??

GEFS was awful for this past weekend, but there was clearly some (as yet to me unknown) reason why that is. All the ensemble systems struggled, although the EPS least of all. In that case, the operationals were all on the far west end of the ensembles. That was a red flag. In this case, they are much more representative.

GEFS and GEPS means both moved toward a snowier outcome for us based on what I can see. And EPS still looks pretty good. Still plenty of hope for a nice powder event.

^that includes Thursday

I guess it depends what time you're asking. There's a lot going on across the CONUS, which is half the problem lol

What @MillvilleWx just said, but yes, could still have a nice northern stream-only event. Warning level for much of LWX is still possible IMO if the northern stream gets stronger.

This Euro outcome makes more sense given the broader longwave pattern. The mean ridge is on/off the west coast. That's not Position A for a MECS. The earlier MECS outcomes were predicated on perfect phasing/wave spacing. A very tough thread the needle. With so many waves in the flow, it makes more sense that you have a single wave driving the bus to create a storm rather than complicated wave interactions. So, with that in mind, this Euro outcome is quite nice still. I think @WinterWxLuvr mentioned earlier that the outcome now depends on the northern stream shortwave and that looks right to me given the 12z suite. Deeper and we get a Euro like outcome. Flatter/progressive and it's the GFS.

This shows it well. Deeper but a bit more progressive.

I’m only comparing the 6z and 0z maps @Weather Will posted, but 6z looks much deeper but a little more progressive with the shortwave? 6z has a broad 543 dm contour through the shortwave. 0z didn’t at all (only 546 dm) except for a tiny closed dot at the base.

Let’s stop the jumps right there please before we have to start sweating mix.

Dude, you should love it. @mitchnickposted elsewhere maps showing the 700mb RH and it was clearly north of the 12z. Probably would be a better run for the NW crew. eta…ok, maybe I missed sarcasm here…

Hopefully not Harrisburg

I got 3.5" out of that during my son's birthday party. Was expecting a dusting and got ice cold wind-whipped powder.

Kill this storm and all in on Saturday. #Euro #RetakeTheThrone