WxUSAF

One positive over the last 24hrs for the GEFS and GEPS, at least , is that they have been restrengthening the -AO and -NAO at the end of the runs. Previously that was starting to break down (although always hard to tell how much is just reflective of ensemble spread).

I’m going Monday! Glad you’re on the mend!

Second. High of 39F again.

I think late last January through much of February was solid winter for us. Insane gradient obviously in snow outcome, but it was a hair breadth (or about 3-5F) away from being a very memorable stretch.

Troegs Troegenator for me tonight

All3 major globals are roughly similar in the D10 time period (basically Jan 1) in suggesting a cutter/lakes storm finally pushes or starts to push the SE ridge down and usher in a cold airmass to at least the center of the country. GFS is most aggressive and fastest. GGEM and Euro are pretty similar and would suggest like Jan 3 or so when we get a good cold push.

By recent standards, quite encouraging 12z Op runs so far with at least possibilities starting after New Years.

Car was all iced up this morning. Temp just below freezing. Might count this as freezing rain if this ends up being the only winter precipitation we get this year…

36F and light rain. Living my best winter life.

2 is pretty good usually. 3 is good for us in March.

Between now and 2022, any frozen precipitation will be front end stuff ahead of a warm front. The models have shown this as a possibility. What we’d hope for in January are overrunning events along a quasi-stationary boundary to our south. Look at the very end of todays 18z GFS and you can sort of see how this works. SE ridge gets suppressed, mean boundary is to our south, and waves run along it with us on the cold side. That can be pretty lucrative.

Woo! First sub 40F day. High of 39F.

23 so far. Coldest this season.

Huntley has looked very impressive in his playing opportunities. Wouldn’t be shocked if he gets some interest in the off-season.

I think Brown was wide open

Lol Jan 1994 analog

You’d assume the D3 forecast will be pretty close to reality. A D10 ensemble forecast shouldn’t really be used for sensible weather at a single point. It’s showing the longwave setup, which will give you a general idea on temp perturbation from normal and storminess. It’s showing that the eastern CONUS is probably warm while the west is cool/stormy. And that will probably be a decent look from D10.

For demonstration purposes, todays 12z GFS has this two wave scenario from hour 324-360. Some front end stuff is also on the table and GFS shows that type of scenario as well after Xmas.

^you’re mixing longwave and shortwave comparisons there. At D10, shortwave positions all get averaged together and washed out. But at D3, they’re well forecast. That’s a pretty good D10 longwave forecast: most of the eastern CONUS is ridging.

Ensembles appear reasonably confident that the Xmas-New Years week will be BN in temps. Not dramatically so, but a few degrees F perhaps. Probably works out to low 40s for highs and upper 20s for lows in aggregate. But the dry trend remains with maybe a little more action right around New Years. Definitely not a big snow pattern, but one that could produce frozen with proper wave timing. That’s sort of been the crux…we want one wave to go through and supply sufficient cold air and then a close trailing wave with some moisture. Both have been hard to come by and the southern plains ridging cuts off Gulf moisture to a large degree.

This is basically's JB twitter feed now trying to respond to the new normal: While also telling people to buy his book

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Congrats @WxWatcher007 and get well soon to your dad and you @psuhoffman. Hopefully mild symptoms given three shots!

Another great thread from @griteater upshot: