Next Tuesday-Wednesday and then next weekend have been threat “windows” on the ensembles for several days already with transient Op run hits and teases. This is obviously a fun solution that will be gone in 6 hours, but its still a time period to watch. We should have a good idea in a week lol.
Major Jan 3 vibes from how the Icon develops next weeks chance. Northern stream gets out of the way, brings cold air, and let’s the southern stream ride over us.
Correlation coefficient is showing the snow line collapsing south around DC now, but I expect that means that it is snow at the height of the radar beam, but low level temps remain way too warm.
This thing is sliding away from NC/VA even. I’m still hoping my nieces can get a good snow in the Raleigh area, but the trend is not their friend right now.
Losing a little to surface melting plus above freezing temps initially at start means I’m fairly skeptical of these Kuchera maps showing >10:1 ratios essentially. I’d love more than 3” for this storm but I doubt it.
It's close. Sort of similar to the GFS, but with a stronger southern stream low. Move that northern stream a little faster so it can drag the boundary back southward and that's a nice hit.
Eh, doubt it. As much as I'm hugging King GFS and Prince NAM, the GFS has been too wet leading into storms this year a few times. I'd have to get 2.9" to beat Sunday/Monday, which I'm skeptical on. Hope I'm wrong!