WxUSAF

It’s different but I’ve heard people mention it on Twitter. Nice that they also think there’s upside potential similar to what Pete Mullinax and HM have said. That and the ULL are what I’m watching.

It’s happened for like 5 different storms this month, but it’s still remarkable to me how the GFS is just kicking the euro’s ass all over the field this month. At least in terms of forecasting the broad evolution of major storm systems. Euro still has “won” at short leads with some details like precip amounts.

Euro also has snow from the ULL over central and western NC and southwest VA. Maybe we can get that north over the next 72 hours. Think that’s much more plausible than this coastal coming west enough to deform us.

I don’t see how it hurts.

It’s still closed off at 500mb at 72hrs over western NC.

Philly, like NYC, is much more dependent on the coastal. It’s more all or nothing for them, while we hopefully have a couple consolation offers at play. Although probably Philly area gets in on the Friday evening fluff.

It’s been the least consistent on this by far. But yeah, it’s rough.

So to speak on the second piece of energy that could extend/enhance our snow: the ULL pass. Look on Pivotal at the GFS 3hr precipitation over the Mid-Atlantic from hour 57-69. Watch an area of precipitation start near the Blue Ridge near Roanoke and the NC mountains and then it expands and moves east toward RIC. IF that happens farther north, and we get in on that AND the arctic front, we could get warning level snows west of the Bay.

The final position isn’t set. This run stopped the GFS trend to push that south and wobbled it back north. I was glad to see that. Sounding at 0z also looks a bit better than I’d seen earlier on the GFS. Stronger lift in the DGZ.

Yup. This is still my primary focus for MBY. If I had any hope for coastal love, this run ain’t what I’d want.

Ok, GFS about to role. Take all the jokes to banter.

I need to remember to move my snowboard to the eastern most point in my yard.

It’s kinda hilarious that our region seems to have relatively narrow goal posts on snow potential whereas areas both north and south of us have just enormous variance. NAM and GFS give eastern NC and southeast VA a MECS and Euro gives them a dusting.

Maybe I’m being a weenie, but I feel like that “should” follow the standard N/NW adjustments as we move toward game time more than the surface low in this case.

We certainly have some boom/bust potential (don’t we always?), but I think the goalposts are fairly narrow. Bust = dusting, Boom (west of Bay) = 6-8”. Now look at NYC!! 2’+ on the euro or dusting -2” on the GFS. Yikes.

A few thoughts this morning: 1. Even with some better model runs, the coastal gets marginal additional precip west of the bay. Maybe that changes but I’m skeptical. @CAPE and everyone on Delmarva are still very much in the game for that. 2. For the metro corridor and NW areas, we are in the game for the Friday evening precipitation that’s aligned with some deep upper air lift and the arctic air boundary sinking south. GFS has been pushing this farther south each run but Euro and GGEM have pretty consistently put it through NoVA and MD. Should have good dendrite formation in this. Encouragingly two very well respected Mets (Pete Mullinax from WPC and HM) have both said that there’s some good upside potential with this feature. 3. Then we have the ULL passage overnight into Saturday morning. The stronger and earlier the 500mb low closes off the better. It provides lift as it goes by to our south and serves to pull moisture off the ocean and wring it out over the area. Again, GFS is currently farther south with this (over central VA), euro farther north near the metro corridor and GGEM sort of in between. Again good dendrite production with this and some possible upside potential if that 500mb low can close off and make a good pass south of us. So, if one area can hit on both of those features and they both juice up a bit, I could see a somewhat coherent region of 4-8” west of the Bay and west of the consolidated coastal-driven precip swath. I think either feature alone can provide 1-3”/2-4” and hopefully nobody gets skunked.

DT is secsy

Agreed. The presentation has changed in several ways. As shown on the euro, I think most of the snow we’re (metro corridor) getting is not from coastal per se but from that gorgeous ULL. Seems GFS has that through northern NC and into VA. Euro is more over the metro area. Encouraging developments, but still 72 hours to go so more changes to come.

Then that’s a major victory after that 12z run. Need 11 more noise runs until it starts snowing.

WTOP radio just said “cold rain moves in on Friday” and I may have impulsively yelled “F*** You!!” in my car.

lol NAM

I mean, you all know I'm as much of a snow weenie as anyone on here. But from the get go, outside of a couple runs last week where it looked like maybe a true Gulf low coming north, this has just huge flashing BUST written all over it. I think there's a good chance we get SOME snow Friday evening. Eastern Shore and Delaware folks have a good shot at a warning level event. But those of us west of the Bay? Or in NoVA and the mountains? Pssshhhh...good luck. Hope I'm wrong but I'm not counting on it until Sunday morning.

We will be PHENOMENALLY lucky to get 6”+ from this IMO. No way in hell we’re getting some 24”+ deform band nonsense. Congrats Chowdaheads.

CntrTim gets to be moderator if I get 9” from this thing like the Kuchera map shows