WxUSAF

Amazing how fast the previously snow starved southern crew becomes hoity toity and poopoo’s the 1-4” of cold powder coming tomorrow night.

Dang…I called 1-4”.

GEFS with a big loud DT WOOF for D10 (MLK weekend). -AO/-NAO/+PNA/-EPO and a clear Miller A signal in the MSLP and precip.

Think it has to be a combo of relatively calm winds and the bottom slush layer freezing into the trees and serving as an anchor for the snow on top?

Perhaps the easiest storm to forecast in CWG’s history. Whole region gets a 1-4” swipe and call it a day.

3k jackpots HoCo. I’m huggin’ A bit more seriously, it’s soundings look very nice for a quick powder bomb. SLRs should be a bit better than 10:1.

Low of 21 near midnight but up to 28 now

GGEM actually runs at 18z also and was quite acceptable per @mitchnick

From what I saw, continuing as WFT is an option.

As someone who isn’t a fan, Red Wolves was IMO by FAR the best option for WFT. Too bad it’s not happening.

Agreed. Up to this morning, I figured this was likely a 2-4” event. Maybe a narrow stripe would get a bit more. Today looks more like 1-3”. So be it. Hopefully we don’t get too much more suppression by the northern stream.

Not really but whatever. Central MD gets the Miller B middle finger.

High of 33, low of 15.

TT snow maps are quite a bit snowier for the NAM, but it’s a total outlier in so many ways…

Great thread from @griteateron where mid and late January may lead

GGEM is also a little flatter. 12z runs have had the leading northern steam wave stronger and hence more suppressive for our storm.

Warning level snow you can sweep off your driveway.

Gorgeous GFS soundings for 6z Friday. Nice lift in the DGZ and no sign of a warm layer. Lovely dendrites falling gracefully in light wind. Straight powder. Here's a case where >10:1 is possible.

Let me offer my congratulations to your kids on an extra week long winter break!

I’ve heard that said explicitly as one of the problems.

So, why is central and NE MD getting the finger on the Euro but not on the GFS? It all comes down to the strength of the shortwave and hence how the surface low shifts to the coast and redevelops. This is comparing the 6z GFS and 0z Euro of TT to make the maps easiest to compare. 6z Euro is a bit stronger than 0z, but the same general pattern holds. Look at how much deeper the GFS is with the shortwave as it moves into the Midwest (lower heights depicted with a deeper blue color). 522 dm height on the Euro is up in northern MI, whereas its over Chicago on the GFS. Then look at how that feeds down to the surface depiction. GFS has a more consolidated low pressure down South, while the Euro has this baggy mess that's half onshore and half offshore. This isn't the ideal frame to compare (would rather 12 hours later), but you get the idea. That baggy mess creates a ragged precip field, with one area (the part down south and west of the Apps) falling apart as the coastal is getting going to our northeast. And we get caught in the middle. This is a very normal thing for Miller B storms!! And Ninas!! So, certainly is possible. We want a consolidated stronger storm, but not *too* strong so it would cut more west.

Low of 15

The Today show interviewed a guy who has been on northbound 95 near Stafford since 730pm yesterday.

OMG

DCA laughs at this statement