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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Jinx!
  2. WxUSAF
    Next weekend looks like a legit early season cold front. First freeze for outer burbs and rural areas seems possible.
  3. WxUSAF
    Looks like this is manifesting in our rain forecast with both an earlier start tonight and the secondary low hanging around in our area and bringing rain Sunday-Monday. That second part has been the tough forecast. Esrlier start and a break tomorrow afternoon is good news for my mother in laws birthday party. But bad news for me sitting out at the Nats-Phillies game tonight
  4. WxUSAF
    Limping to the end. Really needed to win today and they blew it again.
  5. WxUSAF
    Plants in the ground
  6. WxUSAF
  7. WxUSAF
  8. WxUSAF
    It wasn’t on an island at all. Rest of the globals supported it and gfs was on the island. Looks like gfs will win now.
  9. WxUSAF
    12z gfs and GGEM both are close to freezing for the outer burbs the weekend of October 8
  10. WxUSAF
    1.-2.5” probably?
  11. WxUSAF
    Fall is here and it's time to open up this year's contest. You are forecasting the first day the temperature reaches 32F at BWI, IAD, DCA, and RIC. Tiebreaker is highest temperature at DCA in October. This thread will lock at midnight October 7th so you have about a week! Happy freezing!
  12. WxUSAF
    Other guidance trended more toward the GFS solution than anything else overnight with that second round pushed south and diminished. That part is still a wild card. First round of rain looks basically locked in .
  13. WxUSAF
    It’s not even that. Way less than other guidance. It pushes the remnant low well south with that high pressing in more and suppressing it.
  14. WxUSAF
    Heavy rain threat per WPC
  15. WxUSAF
    Euro definitely not on #TeamGFS. Gets rain started Friday evening, way earlier than other guidance. Actually a break for late Saturday and early Sunday, then more rain through Tuesday. VA is drowned…3-10”. Less for MD, but still a bunch. GFS a total outlier.
  16. WxUSAF
    Differences in rainfall totals between the GFS and other 12z globals so far are ludicrous. GFS is like 0.5-1” for most of the sub. Icon is like 3-6” and GGEM 2-4”.
  17. WxUSAF
    Thanks! You could just go the cheaper/lazier/slower route and get a native meadow seed mix and just let it fill in. Those usually have a variety of native grasses and wildflowers that will handle a sunny and dry spot well once they are established. Lots of online native nurseries sell something like that.
  18. WxUSAF
    Putting in a new native plant garden bed. Hoping to get all the plants in the ground before the rain this weekend.
  19. WxUSAF
    44.8 for the low
  20. WxUSAF
    We have my mother in laws 70th birthday party at a brewery Saturday. Was also really hoping for an after-sunset start, but that seems to be a losing bet right now.
  21. WxUSAF
    Storm mode is on! Keep all your carrot cake and cheese discussions in here!
  22. WxUSAF
  23. WxUSAF
    Euro is a deluge. 1.5-5” area wide. Rain from Saturday morning into the wee hours of Wednesday.
  24. WxUSAF
    GFS and GGEM both juiced up for the whole sub. Still timing differences though.
  25. WxUSAF
    Seems like more divergence on Ian rain arrival time overnight than was present yesterday. 6z GFS really slows it down and doesn’t bring it into the metro areas until early Sunday. Whereas the 0z euro moved a little earlier, starting mid-late morning Saturday. How much the high pressure pushes and where the northern edge sets up also are in play.
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