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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Op run at range, etc., blahblahblah, but this is straight pants tent
  2. WxUSAF
    Ensembles seem insistent that we do eventually get that glorious "broad bowl" gradient pattern/overrunning look that @Bob Chill keeps mentioning, but probably not until next weekend or after. EPS and GEPS are similar. No sign to me that winter is done. Plenty of cold air available with storms around.
  3. WxUSAF
    Do it
  4. WxUSAF
    Seems the meeting in the middle between the GFs and euro is going to be a Fall Line event. Fall line and north gets measurable icing and associated impacts. Another 25-50mi S/E of the Fall Line perhaps some light icing at the end plus a freeze over of surfaces.
  5. WxUSAF
    Good catch. I was looking at yesterday's 12z Euro and I realized it was actually the NORTHERN s/w that caused the storm! It sheared out the southern wave (like it does today), but dropped in the northern wave far enough to develop that weak coastal.
  6. WxUSAF
    Euro also shears out the s/w that just misses on the GFS around D7. Booooooo Euro!
  7. WxUSAF
    Need more sacrifices. I have suggestions on who.
  8. WxUSAF
    12z euro yesterday had it. Overnight euro and GGEM were just weak and slightly offshore.
  9. WxUSAF
    lol shit. 10-15" for the whole area. Pants tent.
  10. WxUSAF
    Good things happen when Arctic air is hanging around
  11. WxUSAF
    Woah baby. F this ice noise. Gimme that action.
  12. WxUSAF
    I think maybe we're seeing a little meeting in the middle here. GFS has been trending a bit stronger and norther with the second wave, which pushes the mid level temps up so it is more of a ZR event instead of ZR-sleet-snow. Probably does go to sleet for areas north of DC verbatim on this run. But I don't think this is a snow event.
  13. WxUSAF
    Per Tony Pann's tweet, the GRAF is on #TeamGFS, so we got that going on.
  14. WxUSAF
    RGEM wants absolutely nothing to do with this. Slightly warmer than 6z if anything. Maybe a couple sleet pellets for @mappy as it ends.
  15. WxUSAF
    Not exactly. The "new" GFS uses the FV3 dynamical core. A model's dynamical core is the portion of the model doing the physics of atmospheric motion. The "FV3" on TT is the mesoscale model that also uses the FV3 dynamical core.
  16. WxUSAF
    Because it's based off the previous GFS run. So it should always look a lot like the last GFS run.
  17. WxUSAF
    Yes, but I'll note that 3k at 60hrs has the front noticeably south of where 12k has it at the same time. This is the type of situation where the NAM "should" be good at understanding temp boundaries. We'll see.
  18. WxUSAF
    NAM has been stubborn with this but it's totally on an island. 6z Herpderp is mid-upper 40s for tomorrow while 3k NAM is near freezing.
  19. WxUSAF
    @MN Transplant 12z 3km NAM still has near freezing high temps for tomorrow. 6z Euro was mid-upper 40s, 6z GFS was mid 40s.
  20. WxUSAF
    That statement is vey dependent on WHEN you’re referring to. Looks slightly slower with the front than 12z, but colder behind it.
  21. WxUSAF
    Euro is sort of a compromise between the GFS and GGEM for the D7 storm, but that’s good and gives us a 3-6” swath.
  22. WxUSAF
    What in the 80s and 90s we called a "normal" January!
  23. WxUSAF
    Agreed. Could be a snowier outcome but still need a bigger push of cold air and probably a more distinct second wave that keeps precip going after the cold air gets in.
  24. WxUSAF
    Yes. TPV in the Hudson Bay/Baffin area pressing more on the 6z GFS than previous runs. One run doesn’t make a trend, so let’s see how 12z does.
  25. WxUSAF
    Congrats dude, happy for you. They’re a fun team to watch.
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