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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    lol W in the actual F!?!
  2. WxUSAF
    Huggin’ the ever-living SH-T out of the Herpderp. I-95 death band drops 4-6”!!!
  3. WxUSAF
    ANYMORE
  4. WxUSAF
    GRAF’d
  5. WxUSAF
    You can talk about Randy’s vacation in banter
  6. WxUSAF
    Over performing temps on sunny southwest flow is the most predictable thing ever around here.
  7. WxUSAF
    Seems we found the inside-100hrs consensus that @psuhoffman was waiting for. Saturday overnight snow for most of the subforum with a dusting-2” total. Maybe this “juices up” to 1-3” everywhere but that’s probably tops.
  8. WxUSAF
    I don’t know what 6z showed but it’s better than 0z. Basically dusting-2” for everyone. @CAPE “jackpot” yet again.
  9. WxUSAF
    GFS today is teasing D10, but things look generally hostile for snow chances after next week. Could it change? Sure. And I think there’s no reason to say winter is forked entirely, but expectations should be low given it will be late February or early March. Maybe we score a unicorn in an otherwise warm pattern. It can happen as wavelengths shorten.
  10. WxUSAF
    Given the RGEM, I doubt the GGEM is much different but we’ll know very soon!
  11. WxUSAF
    GFS sounding at 6z near DC and MBY (Columbia) is pretty nice. Strong lift maximized in the DGZ. So it may not snow for long, but it might maximize what we get (also falling at night) if the GFS is right.
  12. WxUSAF
    33-34F temps with light daytime snow ain’t gonna do it in mid February. So need it to snow more at night or thump for a few hours.
  13. WxUSAF
    Do it, it’s time.
  14. WxUSAF
    I hate saying this but it did. Enough spacing at first to get the frontal snow going, but the northern stream diving in fast to probably help juice up the coastal. And the northern stream diving in farther west.
  15. WxUSAF
    ^look at the EPS 500mb anomaly chart for Sunday the 13th at 12z and tell me how that’s numerically a negative PNA.
  16. WxUSAF
    GEFS and EPS playing follow the leader makes things tough to truly assess the goalposts here (and in many situations).
  17. WxUSAF
    Need to see more, but one animation I saw elsewhere suggests EPS has no members which look like the GGEM. As @psuhoffman, yesterdays 18z EPS had a shotgun of scenarios including some like that.
  18. WxUSAF
    Accounting for a bit of wet-bias in the GEFS, EPS and GEFS look pretty similar in precip swath placement?
  19. WxUSAF
    This was a pretty massive jump from the euro so I don’t think we’ve found anything approaching the final solution. EPS will be interesting. The northern stream dropping into the trough could be really good. But we do want some southern stream involved. That affects moisture northward so we perhaps at least get that frontal snow even if we miss the coastal. Hard to lean against the seasonal/Niña trend for areas closer to the coast to be favored for the coastal.
  20. WxUSAF
    GFS keeps the north and southern streams more separate. Euro and GGEM mostly say the northern stream is the show with Euro somewhat of a blend between GFS and GGEM at H5 actually. The differences in their trough axes are like 100mi or so. At 102hrs they are all neutrally tilted but GFS is along the West side of MI, euro and GGEM are over Detroit.
  21. WxUSAF
    The northern stream comes in too far east so it acts more like a kicker than a phase. Obviously some huge variance in that strength and position between the GGEM, Euro, and GFS.
  22. WxUSAF
    Deeper shortwave with higher heights along the east coast relative to 0z at 60hrs.
  23. WxUSAF
    I expect they’ll eat into spring break
  24. WxUSAF
    They already got snow days to extend winter break too!
  25. WxUSAF
    I’ll allow it
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