WxUSAF
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airport lows: IAD 14 BWI 15 DCA 17
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Snow and sleet at my sisters house in Cary, NC. They have a roof/mulch dusting. Never was pure snow she said.
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12/0 now. Got down to 10.6 earlier. Coldest in a long damn time. Crazy to think it will be raining in 12-14 hours.
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16/1. Close to coldest of the year.
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21/2 and baro is high in Columbia
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I should be clear. That response would be for next winter.
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From a purely mid-Atlantic weather weenie point of view, we do NOT want another Pinatubo. Stratospheric volcanic response is a strong winter time +AO.
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Hear hear
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Lol 23 at DCA. The Streak probably lives yet again.
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That's wild, I just looked. 12z GFS also has this thin pocket of warm air aloft at 850mb west of the Apps at 0z Monday. Seems that there's a 850-700mb secondary low that moves west of the Apps and brings that warm air aloft. Interesting.
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It's making the last hour of work go easier.
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Well in your Jan 2016 type events, it usually is pure weenie fodder. At least the 12k.
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Started this evening (while still working, yo @Yeoman!) with a Flying Dog Tropical Bitch.
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For our region, the journey to climo NEVER involves pure-snow events only. Well, only in magical fantasy years like 2009-10. You got to take the slop with the snow. We had 2 pretty lovely all snow/mostly snow events last week. So I'll take my medicine, eat the slop, and tack on another couple/few inches to my annual total.
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Was it the 12/2020 storm that @Cobalt reminded me of yesterday where we had a somewhat similar discussion? NAM went nuts with the warm layer intrusion way inland. As I recall, it was "right" in the sense that a warm layer did go much farther inland than we had been thinking up until that point, but it did end up underdone with the front end snow? The Euro has very good vertical (and horizontal) resolution as well, so got to give that credence also IMO.
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I never do!
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I'm skeptical DCA gets below freezing this weekend at all.
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DC has a watch and I don't??
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We are very much still in business after Sunday. I honestly think this could end up a very memorable winter month.
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One small detail I've been wondering about seems to have appeared on the 0z Euro (at least). The annoying/helpful/disastrous northern stream shortwave makes a pretty good pass for the metro areas late on Monday. And it's strong obviously. Euro spits out some light snow with it. I think that's very plausible and could add C-1" later on Monday.
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Eh...I don't think that's as big a deal as it might seem. That WAA is fierce. The radar will probably get the DC snow hole look by like 15-16z on Sunday and it will start snowing on time around 18z.
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I kind of think it's not worth paying really much attention at all until tomorrow's 12z runs when we'll be within 3k NAM range and between it and the Euro, we can probably get some good fidelity on the changing thermal profile Sunday afternoon/evening. Otherwise, things seemed pretty locked in place.
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Everybody is clearly tired of tracking this storm lol. 2.5 new pages overnight.
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HH GFS is close. DCA might need fresh snowcover in addition to an arctic airmass to get a low of 21F.
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You’re far enough west that any warm layer you get will probably be really short lived. But that sounding shows that (at least) the 800-875mb layer is warming rapidly and a higher resolution model probably would indicate a warmer layer. It’s still going to snow in the metro corridor and it still will accumulate. But I think there will be SOME sleet for many/most east of 81.
