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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    *weeps silently*
  2. WxUSAF
    Come on HoCo, show some backbone!!
  3. WxUSAF
    Thoughts and prayers
  4. WxUSAF
    Correlation coefficient is showing the snow line collapsing south around DC now, but I expect that means that it is snow at the height of the radar beam, but low level temps remain way too warm.
  5. WxUSAF
    39 with rain
  6. WxUSAF
    Hug the Tomer MPAS
  7. WxUSAF
    This thing is sliding away from NC/VA even. I’m still hoping my nieces can get a good snow in the Raleigh area, but the trend is not their friend right now.
  8. WxUSAF
    Losing a little to surface melting plus above freezing temps initially at start means I’m fairly skeptical of these Kuchera maps showing >10:1 ratios essentially. I’d love more than 3” for this storm but I doubt it.
  9. WxUSAF
    48/27, excited for my snowstorm!
  10. WxUSAF
    It's close. Sort of similar to the GFS, but with a stronger southern stream low. Move that northern stream a little faster so it can drag the boundary back southward and that's a nice hit.
  11. WxUSAF
    Eh, doubt it. As much as I'm hugging King GFS and Prince NAM, the GFS has been too wet leading into storms this year a few times. I'd have to get 2.9" to beat Sunday/Monday, which I'm skeptical on. Hope I'm wrong!
  12. WxUSAF
    More like 5.
  13. WxUSAF
    Next Tuesday/Wednesday is clearly the next threat window after Saturday. Been teases/hits on the guidance for a couple days already in that timeframe.
  14. WxUSAF
    GGEM has sort of an overrunning hit today at that time. Verbatim nice 3-6"/4-8" event.
  15. WxUSAF
    Pattern is still ripe AF for at least the next 2 weeks. We're not done just because Saturday looks like a fail for most of us.
  16. WxUSAF
    Eh...still a threat for parts of our subforum. I think it should stay pinned.
  17. WxUSAF
    Because it's a WWA event? It'll be out between 12-2pm IMO.
  18. WxUSAF
  19. WxUSAF
  20. WxUSAF
    I’m a little bummed I’m going to be asleep for @Deck Pic’s 11pm “45/34 excited for my snowstorm” ob.
  21. WxUSAF
    A decent chunk of that must be rain?
  22. WxUSAF
    Probably Friday too. It'll ice up overnight!
  23. WxUSAF
    I hope Fairfax closes tomorrow night out of an abundance of caution. How about...oh, I don't know, just throwing a number out here...say like 6.5 miles south of I-70 do in this setup??
  24. WxUSAF
    GEFS was awful for this past weekend, but there was clearly some (as yet to me unknown) reason why that is. All the ensemble systems struggled, although the EPS least of all. In that case, the operationals were all on the far west end of the ensembles. That was a red flag. In this case, they are much more representative.
  25. WxUSAF
    GEFS and GEPS means both moved toward a snowier outcome for us based on what I can see. And EPS still looks pretty good. Still plenty of hope for a nice powder event.
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