WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Yes, very minimal SO2 release, but directly injected a massive amount of H2O to the strat and mesosphere. My colleagues have estimated a couple tenths of a degree warming over next couple years from this. Nature paper from Nov 19 finds a net climate warming signal already.
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He’s referring to the MJO: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/mjo/mjo_chi.shtml 200mb velocity potential is termed “chi” and “k=1” refers to wavenumber one.
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Yes. Canonical volcanic climate response is summertime continental cooling and wintertime warming due to a strong +AO.
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Pinatubo and HT are VERY different eruptions and Pinatubo was 4 years before 95-96 winter.
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Crazy -NAOs can do amazing things. For instructional purposes and to show the type of opportunities we could see in December with this type of block: This is a complete big dog H5 pattern. Mega west-based -NAO, longitudinally extended trop PV underneath, and a strong shortwave entering in CA. But it’s mid-December and a Niña, both of which are factors working against big dogs. GFS squashes this shortwave, which is not a surprising outcome in a Niña. Still, we might get some enticing Op runs in the days ahead.
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It was a thorough team loss. Except for Tucker.
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I can’t with this team
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He missed one today and that drop by Andrews was awful
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It didn’t work out great for us and we have the Boxing Day fiasco, but I think we’d all roll with that chance again.
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Great drive and they stall again
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^When the -NAO is so big it becomes a -AO
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Ravens offense needs to get shocked back to life. They could have put this game away and now they’re down 1 at half.
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And now this high powered Jags offense is carving up the defense.
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How the hell are the ravens up against the play clock every damn play!?!
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You're trolling, but that is something we've seen before in Ninas. Precip amounts underperform at game time more often than in Ninos.
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Ensembles last night can kicked by 24-48hrs. They precise timing has been bouncing around so it’s not exactly a notable change. And as I’ve said several times, I don’t mind a modest can kick while our climo gets better day by day.
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December to remember or another Niña dud?
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Of course on principle I don’t like above normal temp days, but this was pretty nice wx to put up our Xmas lights.
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Yes it is, which normally is a bad sign for our snow chances. But with high latitude blocking like that, the whole conus is basically BN temp wise.
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This is kinda nuts for a D13 ensemble mean for the -NAO. That Dec 6-11 period is an above-average early season snow threat window.
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BWI: 14.6” DCA: 9.3” IAD: 16.1” RIC: 7.7” SBY: 6.5”
